GOGL - august #1

Sa2ri
GOGL 01.08.2018 kl 07:27 7498

Dry Bulk FFA: Capesize Market Bounces Back
in Dry Bulk Market,International Shipping News 31/07/2018

Capesize Commentary
As expected the physical market bounced yesterday having steadied itself on Friday. The C5 ticked up to 9.60 with RTSA managing to pick up a couple of ships off 14-16 Aug laydays while the C3 gapped up to 23.50/23.75 for mid August loaders. The front of the paper curve reacted accordingly with August reaching 24200, Sept changed hands at 25000 and numerous clips of Q4 traded at 25000. There was very little on the offer for the deferred and as a consequence, the q1 was paid at 142000 and 14250. All in all, a solid start to the week.

Panamax Commentary
It was a sluggish opening to the week on Panamax paper with prompts adding some small gains to the early support. AugSept traded up to $12400 while Q4 traded $12450-12500 range. There was little change further out. We drifted off a touch post index but ultimately maintain good support at current levels.

Supramax Commentary
A very slow day to open the supramax paper week as the market lacked any great liquidity or change down the curve. From the little activity that was seen Q4 was trading several times $12200. Hopefully the week can kick into action today! .

Handysize Commentary
Quiet day on handy paper with no reported trading.

Source: Freight Investor Services

https://www.hellenicshippingnews.com/dry-bulk-ffa-capesize-market-bounces-back-2/
Redigert 01.08.2018 kl 08:05 Du må logge inn for å svare
Sa2ri
01.08.2018 kl 07:29 7081

Tar også med dette avsnittet fra en oppdatering PAS sendte ut i går kveld i forbindelse med GoodBulk sitt salg/kjøp i går:

"Capesize market hotter than expected and prospects are improving
Capesize rates have remained remarkably resilient in July, despite still no boom in iron ore volumes. The Chinese coal market is partly explaining this, with shortages in early Q2 resulting in a massive wave of import – and July is once again causing some serious port congestion in China. The longer term prospects have also become more positive despite all the trade-war noise, with more supportive fiscal policies announced. All this coupled with continued ordering discipline now means upside to the estimates from our latest sector update in June."
Sa2ri
01.08.2018 kl 08:41 6931

PAS beholder GOGL i sin månedsportefølje for august:

"Golden Ocean was up 7.1%, as capesize rates continue to surprise on the upside and have actually remained remarkably stable (and strong) during what is usually a slower period of the year. We expect further strength and asset value hikes and thus keep the name for another month. "

"4 new shares in our August portfolio
We replace AVANCE, DNO, LSG, PROTCT and SSO with AKVA, GSF, KOMP and SCHA while keeping EQNR, GOGL, NODL, ODL and SUBC."
KJEPET
01.08.2018 kl 08:53 6889

Da har det blitt mye sol og lite engasjement rundt aksjer i juli. Ble en mye lengre ferie enn planlagt i år. Umulig å sitte i en varm taxi dag ut og dag inn. Nå er det på tide å innta taxi-setet igjen, og ta opp igjen aktiviteten rundt aksjer generelt og GOGL spesielt:-)

Som jeg skrev før ferien at kursen vil ha gått en god del før sommerferien er over. Slik ble det også. Morsomt å se at markedet er overrasket over utviklingen i bulk. At markedet er overrasket er forsåvidt ingen overraskelse. Shipping er sammensatt og folk flest skal tjene kjappe penger. I shipping må man ha god tid og se de lange linjene. Men det blir penger av slikt også.

Utgangspunktet for høstens rally er på track. Iron ore er fortsatt ikke "hot", men er i fint driv mot høysesongen. Kull derimot er hottere enn ever. Og dager med godt over 30 grader i store deler av Kina, gir høyt forbruk av elektrisitet.

Når det gjelder netto flåtevekst er den noe høyere enn jeg hadde sett for meg. Ligger på rundt 1,6%. Det skyldes den ekstremt lave skrapingen vi har hatt de siste to årene, og spesielt i år. Om 2016 var eksepsjonelt med mye skraping, har 2018 vært ekstremt motsatt vei. Det vil imidlertid rette seg i løpet av neste år når IMO 2020 nærmer seg.

Mange er redde for handelskrig. Handelskrig i seg selv er ikke bra for shipping. Men for Capesize har det lite å si i det korte bildet. Kinamann og OBOR går videre selv om Trump murer seg inne. Paradokset er at siden Trump har begynt å rasle med sablene, har bestilling av nye skip avtatt dramatisk. Rederne er avventende til hva som skjer videre. Det vil gi shipping en lengre periode med gode rater.......

Ser at GoodBulk satser på Capesize segmentet de også https://www.hegnar.no/Nyheter/Boers-finans/2018/07/GoodBulk-med-ny-kjempegevinst. Det har jo GOGL ment i et par år nå, og er kanskje det selskapet i verden som har den beste flåten akkurat nå. Det er bare å nye høsten og glede seg til utbyttene fremover. Ser ikke bort fra at vi får utbytte på $3.5 i løpet av de neste to årene.

Som dere ser ligger FFA for Q4 2019 allerede på $26.750/d. Da er løpet lagt for utbyttene fremover:-)



Redigert 01.08.2018 kl 09:24 Du må logge inn for å svare
Kbkristi
01.08.2018 kl 16:03 6564

Ja, utbyttene framover blir veldig spennende.
I Q1-18 hadde vi snittrater cape på $ 10.773. Da ga Gogl utbytte på $ 0,10.
Legger vi en breakeven på $ 10.000, så er det ikke så mye fortjeneste akkurat.
i Q2-18 hadde vi snittrater cape på $ 14.964.
Med samme breakeven, så gir Q2 mer enn en 5 dobling i fortjeneste fra Q1.
Hittil i Q3 har vi ett snitt på $ 24.050.
Så her kan vi nok vente at utbyttene triller inn. Dette er en pengemaskin som får mer og mer smøring :)
Mollen
01.08.2018 kl 16:12 6534

Gode refleksjoner, men husk at GOGL har fast rate på en god del caper som pr. i dag ligger langt under spotpris. Vi får altså ikke full uttelling av dagens gode rater. Uansett er d klart at GOGL nå tjener gode penger. Gleder meg til Q3 og Q4 resultatet
KJEPET
01.08.2018 kl 20:55 6317

Regner med at dere fikk med dere denne go'biten i dag?
https://www.hellenicshippingnews.com/weekly-dry-time-charter-estimates-august-01-2018/
Sa2ri
02.08.2018 kl 08:43 6071

Fra PAS sin Shipping Daily:

"Still all about capesizes then, with the index moving up another 2%. The paper market was sliding a bit though, yet no apparent weakness to be seen. We must emphasize that heavy congestion in China has contributed very positively to the July strength, with the coal import restrictions certainly helping shipowners out."

"Drybulk: Navios transaction above our quotes – not necessarily the new level
 Navios Maritime Partners released its Q2’18 results yesterday, where the company also announced acquisition from one of its affiliates of two 2016-built vessels (one Panamax and one Capesize) for a combined purchase price of USD 79m.
 We have estimated the joint value of these vessels at USD 74m, so the selling price appears to be a step up from last done levels
 Bear in mind that the transaction is with an affiliate, so there could be some internal factors impacting there. The vessels are also on timecharters with duration several years into the future, however these are said to be at “index-linked” levels, in other words limited surplus value
 As the dry bulk market is preforming well at the moment we expect asset values to move north as well, and this could be another indication of this"
KJEPET
02.08.2018 kl 10:11 5898

Herlige nyheter!

#Seanergy $SHIP #RioTinto iron ore shipments of 170 million tons in H1 18, up 9% - FY 2018 guidance of 340 mil tons #Ironore mine replacement capex confirmed! Great news for #capesize

@Mollen
Det er vel slik at 8 av 46 (17%) Caper er på langtidskontrakter, resten på spot?
Empire
02.08.2018 kl 10:27 5853

Det er vel 12 capesize på faste kontrakter (179000) og 6 Panamax på ca snitt 20 000. Resten er vel i spot eller kortere TC kontrakter på 6-12 mnd.

De Capesize som de har charter-inn fra SFL er vel på.drøye 17 000 og golden sikret seg dermed å gå ca. i 0, hvis ratene ikke skulle bedre seg. Noe de gjorde :)
Redigert 02.08.2018 kl 10:27 Du må logge inn for å svare
Mollen
02.08.2018 kl 10:32 5822

@ Kjepet
Eg oppfattar Q1 2018 rapporten slik at det er 12 caper som går på en fast rate på 17 960 $ pr dag. Til gjengjeld er der 6 panamaxer som går på ein fast rate på 20 750 $ pr dag
KJEPET
02.08.2018 kl 10:54 5754

Det ser ut til å stemme med 12 caper ja i følge Q1 rapporten. Tok en kjapp kikk på hjemmesiden deres, den er ikke like oversiktlig. Takk for oppdateringen:-)

Her kan dere se litt om hvordan BCI. Ligger historikk 10 år tilbake i tid
https://www.investing.com/indices/baltic-capesize-chart
Shippingballs
02.08.2018 kl 10:55 5744

Aksjemarkedene virker litt avventende om dagen. Det er akkurat som alle venter på en korreksjon.
Kbkristi
02.08.2018 kl 11:25 5657

Kjekk graf Kjepet. Ser ut som vi ligger meget bra an i år.
KJEPET
02.08.2018 kl 11:32 5636

Ja, som du ser har vi ikke hatt så høye rater i starten av august på 9 år (toppåret 2009). Men mannen i gata er ikke i nærheten til å forstå dette. Som du så lå GOGL som 4. mest nettosolgte aksje i juni og juli blant Nordnets kunder. Du ser jo hva som har skjedd med kursen etter det?
Kbkristi
02.08.2018 kl 11:46 5604

Og dette nettosalget har jo vært rene gavepakken. Har både fått akkumulert og snittet ned inngangsverdi med flere kroner. Og nettopp det vil gjøre store utslag senere, regner jeg med :)
Sa2ri
02.08.2018 kl 11:53 5575

https://www.hellenicshippingnews.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/08/fw_week_31_2018.pdf
KJEPET
02.08.2018 kl 16:21 5336

Shorterne ser hvor det bærer nå, og dekket inn nye 150.000 aksjer i går. Det brenner nok godt under beina på de 2,6 millioner aksjene som fortsatt ligger short:-)
KJEPET
02.08.2018 kl 17:48 5215

Litt info om hva som skjer i capemarkedet om dagen, og GOGL er perfekt posisjonert :-)

https://www.spglobal.com/platts/en/market-insights/latest-news/shipping/080218-capesize-routes-surged-to-multi-year-highs-due-to-atlantic-push
Sa2ri
03.08.2018 kl 08:35 4901

Fra PAS sin Shipping Daily i dag:

"Strong cape-demand out of Brazil, but also South Africa, continues to push rate ideas north – with capesize rates now at 4Y high levels on some of the major trade lanes. Panamaxes sliding though, with port issues in China also resulting in capesizes being preferred for coal cargoes."
Sa2ri
03.08.2018 kl 08:36 4887

Capesize routes surged to multi-year highs due to Atlantic push
in Dry Bulk Market,International Shipping News 03/08/2018

The current upturn in the Capesize market has surpassed expectations as key Brazil and South Africa to China iron ore routes posted multi-year highs Tuesday mainly on the back of strong demand from the Atlantic market.

“Brazil and [South Africa] are obviously supporting, which is what is needed [for this market]. The fundamentals, especially from Brazil, were that they wanted to produce record shipments to make up for the rainy first quarter,” a Capesize shipowner source said.

The Brazil push for these vessels saw the Capesize Tubarao to Qingdao 170,000 mt (plus/minus 10%) route being assessed at $24.15/wmt Tuesday, which is the highest since November 10, 2014, when it was at $24.25/wmt.

While it’s debatable whether the supply tightness was the sole reason for the market seeing a big uptick in the rate levels, the leftover cargoes with prompt dates was certainly of no harm to the shipowners’ cause.

“There isn’t particularly too much tonnage tightness towards the Atlantic, but some cargoes with earlier loading dates have to be cleared out, and the vessels that are able to make those dates are all offering high numbers,” a Singapore-based source with a ship broking company said.

For the Atlantic market, the tonnage demand emanating from South Africa also, to an extent, added to the market’s momentum. The Saldanha Bay to Qingdao 170,000 mt (plus/minus 10%) route assessed at $18.10/wmt Tuesday, which is just 40 cents/wmt below the four-year high of $18.50/wmt registered on November 7, 2014.

In the Pacific region, the freight rate for a Capesize vessel to move iron ore from Port Hedland to Qingdao was assessed at a year-to-date high of $10.10/wmt Tuesday.

The earnings on the Capesize vessels have spiked substantially with the pickings on the key routes above the $25,000/day levels.

The Time Charter Equivalent or TCE on the Port Hedland-Qingdao route was assessed at $26,458/day Tuesday, up approximately six-fold from a year-to-date low of $4,712/day on April 4, 2018.

The TCE for the Tubarao-Qingdao route was assessed at $26,768/day, and for the Saldanha-Qingdao at $25,821/day. Both being the highest since S&P Global Platts began publishing TCE assessments from January 3, 2017.

“There is good demand, while the supply build-up is slow. Also, small-size players have quit the Capesize market, making it more consolidated and the owners [with larger fleet] getting more bargaining power,” a ship-operating source said, adding that the strong steel margins were supporting the seaborne iron ore shipping volumes for the past few years.

Sentiment in the Capesize segment was also buoyed by the recent rally in the freight derivatives market, as well as an increasing tightness in supply of vessels given the delays caused by a series of typhoons that buffeted the North Asia region.

“There are more spot cargo requirements popping up, so the market is bound to push higher,” a source with a ship-operating firm said.

The gains made in the recent days are expected to persist in the third and fourth quarters of the year, market sources said.
Source: Platts

https://www.hellenicshippingnews.com/capesize-routes-surged-to-multi-year-highs-due-to-atlantic-push/
Andreas
03.08.2018 kl 11:17 4620

Motstanden på 76 begynner å bli nokså "spist opp" etter hvert nå. På den annen side så er ikke bildet helt rosenrødt heller, sjekk denne f eks;
https://www.hellenicshippingnews.com/dry-bulk-coal-trade-shifting-on-sulphur-restrictions/
KJEPET
07.08.2018 kl 08:29 4192

Da banker skipsverdiene nok en gang opp over 2% (forrige uke) på 5 år gamle caper. Når skal rater og skipsverdier gjenspeiles i aksjekursen? Hvilken dag får vi 5-7% økning, og går over 80.-?

https://www.hellenicshippingnews.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/08/ALLIED-Weekly-Market-Report_03_08_2018b-1.pdf
Sa2ri
07.08.2018 kl 08:58 4106

ARC er ute med en oppdatering i dag hvor de øker kursmålet til $12. Skal se om jeg får lagt ut denne i løpet av dagen.
domboshawa
07.08.2018 kl 10:57 3902

Det blir spennende å se fremover hvordan de nye kravene (2020) til svovelinnhold i drivstoff vil påvirke kursen. Dette er elementer som bør inkluderes i meglerhusenes vurderinger. Kostnadene kan øke med opptil 20 000 dollar i døgnet for enkelte skip, noe som er betydelig. Installering av skrubbere vil også utgjøre en kostnad man må ta med i vurderingene.
Gull i pungen
08.08.2018 kl 07:53 3652

Star Bulk Carriers result beats street estimates

Klippet fra TradeWinds

Bulker owner optimistic about market fundamentals given strengthening rate and asset value environment.

Petros Pappas has sounded an optimistic note about the dry bulk sector as his company Star Bulk Carriers reported results ahead of market expectations.

The US-listed shipowner, which has been on a recent acquisition spree, posted second quarter earnings of 21 US cents per share, 3 US cents ahead of Wall Street estimates.

Net profit for the quarter was $10.7m reversing the year ago loss of $10.3m, as revenue jumped by almost 70% to $132.6m.

“We are pleased to report the third consecutive profitable quarter, where we achieved $90m in TCE revenues,” said chief executive Petros Pappas.

“Our average TCE for the quarter continued to increase quarter on quarter to $13,567 per day, per vessel, while daily opex and net cash G&A expenses per vessel were held at $3,996 and $1,072 per day respectively.

“We are optimistic about market fundamentals of the industry given the strengthening rate and asset value environment.

“Dry bulk supply is presently expanding at the lowest pace of the last decade while demand is supported by healthy ton‐ mile growth due to continued Chinese demand for higher quality raw materials.”

At the end of the quarter Star Bulk said it had fixed 60% of its third quarter 2018 days at average TCE rates of $13,882 per day.

The company also looks set for even better results having recently closed all three of its recently announced acquisitions which have added 34 vessels with an average age of 5.2 years and average size of 119,105 dwt.
KJEPET
08.08.2018 kl 08:00 3633

Bare å glede seg :-)
https://shippingwatch.com/secure/carriers/article10788150.ece
JSL
08.08.2018 kl 08:37 3551

@KJEPET
Kan du lime inn artikkelen eller utdrag fra den. Linken krever innlogging for å få lest artikkelen..
Sa2ri
08.08.2018 kl 08:55 3506

Fra en morgenrapport (ARC) i dag:

GOLDEN OCEAN: RAISING ESTIMATES
1) We are entering the strong part of the season on a high note and RAISE our estimates accordingly.
2) We see 34% upside on consensus capesize estimates vs the FFA market alone.
3) We are now 24-30% above consensus after lifting our Cape forecast.
4) Looking at normal seasonality, we see 102% upside to cons estimates.
5) TP Raised to $12
KJEPET
08.08.2018 kl 09:56 3386

Sorry JSL, har ikke rettigheter. Synes bare overskriften var svært positiv:-)

Kan ikke akkurat si at investorene i GOGL er fremover lente. Ikke engang knalltall for sammenliknbare selskaper som Star Bulk får folk til å kjøpe. Når man i tillegg har rater vi har nå, og at tallene fra Kina er meget gode, ja da er det ikke håp. At kursen ligger under 90.- er uforståelig, men som alltid vil kursen gjenspeile verdien i et selskap over tid.
laser
08.08.2018 kl 10:07 3357

.....så har heller ikke GOGL verdens mest utadvendte CEO.... sikkert knalldyktig på økonomi og ledelse....lav score på investor-relation.
Gordon Ekko
08.08.2018 kl 10:10 3337

Må si jeg også undres over prisingen av Gogl for tiden. Bedre rater enn forventet, økende skipsverdier, positive analyser og inne i et godt halvår med gode forventinger til, samt gode tall fra konkurrenter som også kommuniserer tro på markedet fremover. I går tror jeg vi hadde et shortangrep fra morgenen av, men for tiden er vi tydeligvis ikke nok som kjøper på økende kurser. Blir spennende å se om vi får en katalysator fremover som trigger potensialet eller om handelskrig overskygger dette.
KJEPET
08.08.2018 kl 10:15 3316

Det kan du godt si laser, men heller Vartdal enn Billung. Han anbefalte jo kjøp under hele den lange nedgangsperioden. Alle så jo hvor det bar den gangen. Jeg forholder meg til økonomien/resultatene og synes Vartdal leverer varene meget bra!
domboshawa
08.08.2018 kl 10:17 3304

Psykologien i markedet i forbindelse med en eskalerende handelskrig tror jeg er hovedårsaken!
KJEPET
08.08.2018 kl 10:21 3287

@Gordon
Det er nok flere investorer som leser overskriftene og Twittermeldingene til Trump, enn de som følger med på det fundamentale. Da blir det slik. ALLE er nå avventende og tror at handelskrigen vil påvirke byggingen i Kina. Markedet ignorerer til og med når fakta legges på bordet. Når Q2 legges frem, med solid guiding, så skal plutselig alle inn igjen. Sånn er aksjemarkedet blitt, og dermed blir volatiliteten høy.
Sa2ri
09.08.2018 kl 08:39 2999

China’s iron ore imports rise in July despite pollution curbs
in Dry Bulk Market,Freight News 09/08/2018


China’s iron ore imports rebounded in July, customs data showed on Wednesday, buoyed by record steel production and strong margins as official measures to cut pollution curb the output of cheaper products from small mills.
The world’s top iron ore importer bought 89.96 million tonnes of the steel making raw material last month, according to the General Administration of Customs, up from June’s 83.24 million tonnes and 88.66 million tonnes in July last year.
Shipments for the first seven months of this year fell 0.7 percent from a year ago to 620.65 million tonnes, the customs data showed.
China, the world’s leading steelmaker, churned out a record 80.2 million tonnes of crude steel last month, just shy of the 81.6 million tonnes the United States produced in whole of 2017.
Profit margins at Chinese steel mills have reached near- record levels around 1,100 yuan ($161.24) a ton, supported by ongoing capacity cutting and environmental crackdowns.
Demand from traders for iron ore was still strong, especially given an escalating U.S.-China trade row and a weakening yuan, said Cao Ying, chief steel analyst at SDIC Essence Futures.
“Uncertainties from the external trade situation, especially changes in currency exchange rates amid the trade row between Beijing and Washington, may stimulate demand to replenish supplies before the yuan devalues further,” she said, adding that traders had been scrambling to buy imported ore in recent days.
The yuan touched a 14-month high of 6.89 against the U.S. dollar CNY= on Monday after China proposed new tariffs on $60 billion of imported goods from the United States.
On Tuesday, Washington said it will begin collecting 25 percent tariffs on another $16 billion in Chinese goods on Aug.23, heating up the trade spat between the world’s top two economies.
However, stricter environmental controls have cut restocking demand by mills for iron ore fines, which need to go through a high-polluting sintering process before being used in iron-making blast furnaces.
Weekly utilization rates at steel mills’ blast furnaces across the country slipped last week to the lowest since mid-April, according to the Mysteel consultancy.
Several steelmaking cities in Hebei province have also enacted summer production restrictions to curb pollution, while Beijing last week unveiled a draft plan for 28 northern cities in winter, asking steel mills to cut capacity by as much as 50 percent.
Imports of steel products fell 1.3 percent to 1.03 million tonnes, customs data showed. The country bought 7.7 million tonnes of steel products in the first seven months of 2018, which was down 1.1 percent from a year ago.
Source: Reuters (Reporting by Muyu Xu and Josephine Mason; editing by Eric Meijer and Richard Pullin)

https://www.hellenicshippingnews.com/chinas-iron-ore-imports-rise-in-july-despite-pollution-curbs/
Sa2ri
09.08.2018 kl 08:45 2971

BULK:LAVERE CAPESIZE-RATER DENNE UKEN -FEARNLEYS
Oslo (TDN Direkt): Capesize-ratene har falt noe tilbake igjen denne uken, etter den sterke foregående uken, skriver Fearnleys i sin ukentlige rapport onsdag.

Men med det overordnet nivået disse nå er på, er dette ikke dramatiske, men heller en sunn korreksjon, ifølge Fearnleys.

I panamax har det vært nok en uke med lite handel og oppbremsende rater i Nord-Atlanteren.

Supramaxaene har blant annet sett bedring i den amerikanske delen av Mexicogulfen, og Svartehavsmarkedet holder en jevn fart, opplyses det.

RATER (USD/DAG, USD/TONN):
DENNE FORRIGE
CAPESIZE UKE UKE LAV/HØY 2018
==============================================================
TCT Cont/Fjern-Østen 43.250 43.800 18.000/44.000
--------------------------------------------------------------
Tubarao/Rotterdam (jernmalm) 11,50 11,50 5,30/11,50
--------------------------------------------------------------
Richards Bay/Rotterdam (kull) 10,70 10,70 5,40/10,70
==============================================================
DENNE FORRIGE
PANAMAX UKE UKE LAV/HØY 2018
==============================================================
Atlanterhavet rundreise 11.700 14.500 7.100/15.000
--------------------------------------------------------------
TC Kontinentet/Østen 19.000 21.800 15.000/21.800
--------------------------------------------------------------
TC Østen/Kontinentet 4.600 5.000 4.300/5.200
--------------------------------------------------------------
TC Østen, rundreise 8.300 9.000 8.300/13.750
==============================================================
DENNE FORRIGE
SUPRAMAX UKE UKE LAV/HØY 2018
==============================================================
Atlanterhavet, rundreise 12.500 12.000 11.000/16.000
--------------------------------------------------------------
Stillehavet, rundreise 9.750 10.000 8.000/12.500
--------------------------------------------------------------
TC Kontinentet/Østen 19.000 18.750 16.000/20.500
==============================================================
DENNE FORRIGE
1 ÅR TIMECHARTER UKE UKE LAV/HØY 2018
==============================================================
Capesize 180' dwt 22.000 22.000 17.000/22.000
--------------------------------------------------------------
Capesize 170' dwt 19.250 19.250 15.750/19.250
--------------------------------------------------------------
Panamax 75' dwt 12.250 13.000 11.250/14.000
--------------------------------------------------------------
Supramax 53' dwt 11.950 12.150 10.000/13.000
==============================================================
HH, finans@tdn.no
TDN Direkt, +47 21 95 60 70

https://www.hellenicshippingnews.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/07/fw_week_29_2018b.pdf
Redigert 09.08.2018 kl 08:45 Du må logge inn for å svare
Sa2ri
09.08.2018 kl 17:30 2747

Fra Twitter akkurat nå:

#Capesize ECSA still encouraging #reported 187k on C3 route with 15/20 Aug laycan for $24,5/t 1 yr T/C week 31 usd 20,5k/21,5k
KJEPET
10.08.2018 kl 08:47 2477

Takk Sa2ri. Vi er straks halvveis i Q3, og vi ligger an til EPS på over $0.6 bare for dette kvartalet! Og om vi er VELDIG beskjedne så kan vi regne med det samme i Q4 (selv om jeg tror på nærmere $0.8 for Q4). Da skal det mye til å påstå at 75.- NOK er dyrt.

God helg til alle GOGL'ere, taxisjåfører og andre hardtarbeidende optimister :-)
Redigert 10.08.2018 kl 08:50 Du må logge inn for å svare
KJEPET
10.08.2018 kl 13:06 2275

Herlig guiding fra EuroDry nå. Akkurat som jeg skulle sagt det selv :-)

"We are optimistic about the prospects of the drybulk markets as the orderboook is close to its lowest levels of the last 20 years and new regulations coming in effect in the near future will likely keep the supply of vessels in check; this will allow increases in demand to positively influence earnings and values. We believe it is still an opportune time to pursue growth either through individual vessel purchases or by consolidating with others who would like to become shareholders of a publicly listed drybulk company. Along those lines, we have been evaluating opportunities to acquire new vessels and exploring merger possibilities with other fleets in accretive transactions. We expect that the profitability we are experiencing in Q2 will continue and even further improve in the next couple of quarters.”
Sa2ri
13.08.2018 kl 10:26 1935

Fra PAS sin Shipping Daily I dag:

"Drybulk also marginally softer on Friday, though capesizes are holding around the strong USD 25,000/day level."

"Drybulk: Capesize momentum still firm
- Though rates ended slightly lower on Friday, the capesize momentum seen during July has continued firmly into August
- Brazilian iron ore exports were up 2% m/m during July – and more impressively up 15% y/y
- China is absorbing most of it, with some sources claiming “China is buying everything they can get hold of”. While this has led to increased iron ore stockpiles-the levels of just above 152m tonnes are still down 7-8% from the peaks of May
- Steel prices are also firm, and have moved up over the past week to close in on YTDhigh’s. Margins for steel producers have also moved up over the last weeks, despite firmer iron ore prices as well
- Finally, coal stockpiles at Qingdao fell sharply last week, with domestic mines continuously struggling to ramp up production. As such, the near- and medium term outlook for coal imports also remain robust into peak season for capsizes"
Sa2ri
13.08.2018 kl 13:50 1761

Dry Bulkers: Second-Hand Tonnage Primed for Taking
in Dry Bulk Market,Hellenic Shipping News 13/08/2018

As the activity in the S&P market has subsided on account of the summer lull, it’s a perfect time for ship owners to contemplate on future deals and plan ahead. In a recent report, shipbroker Intermodal said that “the dry bulk market activity over the past four weeks has remained stable when compared to the previous months. There are concerns with regards to the dry bulk rates, which were stable and sometimes softening along with a considerable decrease of the volume on SnP transactions”.

According to Intermodal’s, Giannis Andritsopoulos, SnP Broker, “the Handy market was soft and there were no positive signs, due to the fact that asset prices were at low levels until the Easter holidays. Following Easter, we saw that values started to increase from that time until Posidonia with aggressive buyers being firm to purchase vessels. When the “ex-CIELO DI TOKYO” (37,296 dwt-blt ’08, Japan) was sold in May a correction on prices followed. Hence, as is normal, this changed the position of buyers from firm to one of monitoring and waiting on how the market will perform”.

He added that “regarding Supras, there are still the usual suspects who noticeably purchased vessels during the past year and remain firm to continue purchasing. The values of the previous months, until the sale of the “FORTUNE UNITY” (53,472 dwt-blt ‘06, Japan), which was sold for $10.5m were stable in the aforementioned levels and had a downward trend for Japanese tonnage. However, last week we saw the vessel of Doun Kissen “NAVIOS ARMONIA” (55,522 dwt-blt ’08, Japan), being committed for $14.2m. On the other hand, Chinese Supras with the price difference from Japanese Supras (around 30%) attracted Supra buyers and the last three weeks there has been strong interest from Chinese buyers who are interested in Tier II Supras for import”, Andritsopoulos said.

“With the recently introduced regulations in regards to the Chinese flag, the SnP market has a mixed picture of the past 4 weeks, and the consequent change of plans for sellers that own a vessel built between 2001-2003 and as well as for Chinese buyers who are now focusing on Tier II vessels. As far as Panamaxes and Kamsarmaxes, we can spot limited interest in regards to modern vessels as well as in vessels being built between 2005–2007, despite there being numerous vessels for sale. For Chinese Kasmarmaxes, we witnessed big competition for the Toisa Kamsarmaxes, because of the attractive discount, which made even owners that were focusing on Japanese tonnage to reconsider and to take the chance of purchasing a cheap Chinese Kamsarmax”, Intermodal’s analyst noted.

“Lastly, it is interesting to take a look at the tanker market, as despite an absence of strong competition, some interesting deals took place lately. We saw a VLCC with Japanese flag built ’04 being sold for $22.0m., an Aframax built ’08 being sold for $19.5m and during the last weeks there is a lot of interest in MRs with the majority of the buyers being Greek.The stable asset prices together with the increase on wet tonnage will most probably lead to interesting opportunities into second-hand tonnage”, he concluded.
Nikos Roussanoglou, Hellenic Shipping News Worldwide

https://www.hellenicshippingnews.com/dry-bulkers-second-hand-tonnage-primed-for-taking/
KJEPET
13.08.2018 kl 15:33 1652

Skipsverdiene opp (bare ett skip omsatt riktignok) forrige uke. Cape opp i dag, over $26.000/d , og i morgen (FFA ifølge Twitter nå). Jeg ligger og venter på at du skal selge meg dine aksjer på 72.- tallet, og jeg kan få 10-12.- i utbytte det neste året på de :-)
Kbkristi
I går kl 07:41 1374

Der er du for beskjeden Kjepet. Vi får vel kr 27 kun ifra Premium-kontoen. I tillegg kommer det vanlige utbytte.
Så her må nok de store shortene dekke inn.
Sa2ri
I går kl 08:41 1284

Tror ikke du skal ha forhåpninger om utbytte i denne størrelsesorden fordi GOGL gjør en teknisk endring pga lovene på Bermuda. Men, ingenting vil glede meg mer enn at jeg tar feil.
Kbkristi
I går kl 08:48 1263

Styret sier jo rett ut at " Additional Paid In Capital" account skal reduseres til NIL. Og det skal gjøre styret istand til å betale utbytte så lenge selskapet er solvent. Aksjonærene har ingen glede av at pengene står utilgjengelig på Premium account, nå som det ikke lenger er nødvendig.
KJEPET
I går kl 08:57 1240

Men ser man på det fundamentale så øker jo profitten til stålprodusentene dag for dag nå. Bare sjekk utviklingen på rebar her http://www.shfe.com.cn/en/products/SteelRebar/

I tillegg har malmlagrene falt, og kullagrene er lave. Når BTW OG IMO 2020 også skal implementeres i tillegg til lav ordrebok, så sier det seg selv hvor dette bærer :-) I dag er det tid for høstens påfyll av aksjer.
Sa2ri
I går kl 09:49 1139

@Kbkristi:

Som nevnt, jeg er ikke helt enig med din tolkning av innkallingen, men jeg ser gjerne at du har rett og jeg feil. Uansett, her er teksten for de som ikke har sett dette enda (muligens noen skrivefeil/stavefeil da dette er konvertert fra pdf til Word, men har rettet de jeg har sett så langt):

"PROPOSAL 5 -REDUCTION IN THE SHARE PREMIUM ACCOUNT

At the Meeting, the Board will ask the shareholders to approve a reduction in the Company's Share Premium account (referred to as Additional Paid in Capital in the financial statements of the Company) and to credit the amount resulting from this reduction to the Company's Contributed Surplus account. The Share Premium account is the amount of share capital which exceeds the aggregate par value of the Company 's outstanding Ordinary Shares of par value $0.05 each. The purpose of this proposal is primarily to increase the ability of the Company to declare and distribute dividends to its shareholders .

The Company's policy is to pay dividends with the timing and amount being at the discretion of the Board of Directors and depending upon the Company's operational results, financial conditions, cash requirements, restrictions in financing arrangements and other relevant factors.

Under Bermuda law a company cannot pay dividend s from share premium . In addition, Bermuda law provides that a company may not declare or pay a dividend, or make a distribution out of a contributed surplus, if there are reasonable grounds for believing that: (a) the company is, or would after the payment be, unable to pay its liabilities as they become due; or (b) the realizable value of the company's assets would thereby be less than the aggregate of its liabilities and its issued share capital and share premium accounts .

As at March 31, 2018, the balance of the Company's Share Premium Account was approximately US$473m . lt is possible that in the future, the Company's ability to pay dividends by way of cash earnings and/or share distributions will exceed its retained earnings. The Board of Directors have therefore put forward this proposal to reduce the Share Premium (Additional Paid in Capital) account from approximately US$473m to nil by transferring the entire balance from the Share Premium (Additional Paid in Capital) account to the Contributed Capital Surplus account with immediate effect. This will enable the Board of Directors to declare dividends as long as the Company is solvent and the realizable value of its assets exceeds its liabilities and issued share capital.

Under Bermuda law, the Company if authorized in a general meeting may, subject to any order made by the Minister of Finance of Bermuda and to its Memorandum of Association and Bye-Laws, either with or without extinguishing or reducing the liability of any of its shares and either with or without reducing the number of shares, reduce any paid up capital that is in excess of the requirements of the Company. The Company's Bye-laws provide that subject to the Bermuda Companies Act 1981 (the "Companies Act"), the Company may by Resolution authorize the reduction of its issued share capita l or any Share Premium or contributed surplus account in any manner whatsoever.

The Company is required , in order to effectuate such reduction , (a) not more than 30 days and not less than 15 days before the meeting to cause a notice to be published in an appointed newspaper (which notice has been published) stating the amount of the share capital as last previously determined by the Company, the amount to which the share capital is to be reduced, and the date as from which the reduction is to be recorded, and the date as from which the reduction is to have effect; and (b) on the date as from which the reduction is to have effect, an affidavit shall be sworn by at least two directors of the Company declaring either that on that date the Company is solvent or that all the creditors of the Company on that date have expressed in writing their concurrence in the reduction.

Without 30 days after the date such reduction of the paid up share capital is effective the Company, as required by Bermuda law, will file a memorandum, with a copy of the notice and the affidavit referred to above annexed thereto, in the office of the Bermuda Registrar of Companies ("Registrar") notifying the Registrar of compliance with the Companies Act."
Frontman
I går kl 10:07 1083

Mye forvirring rundt dette. Premium account forstås som bunden egenkapital. Reduserer man den bundne EK og overfører det til fri EK øker man muligheten regnskapsmessig for uttak av utbytte. Utbytte er begrenset til andel fri EK. DVS at om man har likviditet til det og mulighet til å betale utbytte utover genererte overskudd fremover blir dette nå mulig.
Premium account er ikke en bankkonto!!!. Med masse cash
andh
I går kl 10:47 1000

Takk for info. Dette er svært spennende. Etter min oppfatning er det to grunner til at dette gjøres: Enten for å komme en framtidig endring i lovverk på Bermuda som ansees uheldig for selskapet i forkjøpet, eller dele ut utbytte - ved Q2 og/eller senere. Hadde det vært med intensjon å anskaffe mer tonnasje, hadde dette stått i innkallingen.
KJEPET
I går kl 14:02 801

Ja, ja. Ikke noe kjøp i dag. Får håpe at de utålmodige selger unna i morgen når caperatene er et par prosent ned, slik at man får kjøpt seg inn rundt 72.- :-)