Golden Ocean -juli #1

Følger ikke Golden Ocean så tett, men har noen på kistebunnen. Nå er Q2 tilbakelagt. Sett på bakgrunn av ratene, hva tror dere om størrelse på overskudd og utbytte?
03.07.2018 kl 00:39 14737

He, he. Panamaxer med TCA på $16.000/d. La oss få kursen under 60.-, etter 25% økning i skipsverdiene i år i tillegg. Markedet er helt på vill veier om dagen. Men det kommer, når shorterne og nervevrakene har solgt. Og da kommer det til å gå temmelig bratt oppover :-)
03.07.2018 kl 07:33 14609

Having reached the mid-point in the year, it seems to be a good time to summarize the overall trends noted in the Dry Bulk sector and more specifically the Capesize market, while looking to get a feel as to what we can expect during the second half of the year. All-in-all, it has been a rather interesting half, with a considerable amount of volatility, underlining how fragile the market balance remains and how vulnerable it is to small shifts in trading trends.

Indicatively, the BDI finished June at 1,385 points, a level which is just above the 1,366 points which it closed off the previous year, whereas contrary to this, the Capesize index, which tends to be the main influencing size segment, finished at slightly softer level, reaching the 2,170 point mark, compared to the 2,830 basis points it ended off in December 2017. This is a considerable drop, though worth mentioning that it is still well above its 6-month average figure. So where does all this leave us now? Are we going to be able to see a strong rally in the final quarter of the year that will help us brake above the 4,000 point mark on the BCI? or is the capsize market going to suffer from the global economic and political turmoil at play, leading it to a perpetual motion between the 800 and 3,000 point level for the remainder of the year?

The answer may lie somewhere in between, given the multiple influencing factors currently at play. On the Iron ore front, China, just had its best month in terms of imports, probably well above 90 million tons, an important figure when you take into account the fact that China is by far the largest importer. Moreover, Coal, the second main commodity for Capes, has been showing a remarkable rise in trade volumes in the year so far (as has been pointed out in previous weeks) and given the recent positive trends noted in terms of pricing of the commodity, shows for an equally promising performance over the months ahead. The caveat here is that both these commodities are highly dependent on steel production and although steel output figures in China are around 5% higher compared to last year, they are also highly susceptible to the risk of any dampening effect the recent trade war tariffs could eventually have on the steel products trade. Taking note of the overall balance at play in the market it is important to note that the Capesize fleet development has been holding at a modestlevel of around 1.02%, well below what was being noted in the year prior. Given all this and even when taking into account the risk overhang on trade, it looks as though a more attuned supply demand balance may well still be at play.

With all being said, the first half of 2018 has left us with an eerie feel, with the intense ups and downs noted in the market being the cause of increased uncertainty. We can anticipate that for the rest of the summer period, things will be moving in a similar pattern to what we have witnessed so far in the year. Most will be likely focusing on the final quarter of the year, which is traditionally the most bullish seasonal point for Capesize vessels. As to if the market will be able to break above its previous highs during the fourth quarter, it looks as though most market thoughts are in favor of such an outcome at this point. Though all this would depend largely on the current trade trends being sustained and not so susceptible to any geopolitical interruptions at play.
Thomas Chasapis
Research Analyst

Capesize - A whole lot of sideways movements was to be seen early on in the week only to be followed by some slight downward correction as the days progressed. Things however managed to make a recovery just as the week was coming to a close, led by a considerable improvement in enquiry levels in the Atlantic which helped boost sentiment and overall fixing levels. It looks as though this positive momentum could spill over onto the next couple of days.

Panamax - Things continued to remain relatively difficult with an overhang being witnessed in the Pacific as tonnage lists remained swollen while interest was still trickeling in at a relatively slow pace. Things were looking considerably better in the Atlantic basin with activity picking up both in the North as well as out ofECSA. Given the improvement being noted now it looks as though the overall market should start to make a turn for the better.

Supramax - The negative vibe seemed to have intensified this week, with the Atlantic struggling to show any positive signs and the Far East looking to be fairlyswamped by the number of open vessels in the region. There is some hope that the level of enquiries should start to slowly pick up now, though it will still take a couple of days until we see tonnage lists start to clear.

Handysize - Things were under pressure here too, though holding off better than what was being witnessed in the larger Supramax segment. The main let down was the Continent, where we were seeing limited fresh interest. Things seemed to be better in the Pacific, though without enough support to push for better levels.
Redigert 03.07.2018 kl 07:35 Du må logge inn for å svare
03.07.2018 kl 11:10 14337

Fra PAS sin Shipping Daily:

"Capesizemomentum is still good, with spot rates pushing USD 20,000/day. Steady for the rest of the segments, as we are approaching the date where soybean tariffs will be put into force."
05.07.2018 kl 08:01 13986

Kan se ut som om ratene skal fortsette oppover i dag også:

As the World Cup heats up the Cape mkt does the same - Pac and Atl posted big gains. Despite 11% jump in index Capes ran into selling post index, although rates improved as pm drew to a close. July discount shows some vertigo - more to come from phys?
05.07.2018 kl 08:41 13872

Gårdagens fra Bulls:
Last Signal:BUY
Last Close:71,00 Change:+0,4000 Percent change+0,57% Signal Update Our system’s recommendation today is to BUY. The pattern finally received a confirmation because the prices crossed above the confirmation level which was at 70,60, and our valid average buying price stands now at 70,70. The previous SELL signal was issued on 21.06.2018, 13 days ago, when the stock price was 73,40. Since then GOGL.OL has fallen by -3,68%.Market Outlook Let’s jump on our white horses and go for a bullish ride. The bullish pattern that was previously identified is finally confirmed and a BUY signal is generated. Most probably, it is the right time to participate in bullish fervor. The market is telling you about a new profit. Do not miss this bullish opportunity. more...
05.07.2018 kl 09:49 13619

Fra PAS sin Shipping Daily:

«Cape-momentum remains very strong, with the Atlantic being particularly tight and more room for further upticks in the near term here.»
05.07.2018 kl 11:22 13411

Weekly Broker: Cape summer spur set to see deals intensify
Jul 05, 2018 02:41 pm | Jason Jiang
School’s out for summer in the northern hemisphere, but canny owners are likely to need to keep their smartphones to hand on their megayachts in the summer months as deals are expected to ramp up for the bigger bulker segments. Rates in the cape sector have dramatically improved this week, and Brazilian miner Vale is […]
06.07.2018 kl 08:07 13091

World’s Biggest Shipping Market Booms as Trade War Shrugged Off
in International Shipping News 06/07/2018

Will somebody please tell commodity shippers there’s a trade war going on?

Whether it’s the price of hiring giant freighters to haul hundreds of millions of tons a year of iron ore and coal, or smaller carriers moving grains, there’s a theme emerging: dry-bulk shipping rates are rallying despite an escalating trade war that may yet damage China’s economy.

“Freight traders don’t believe in that,” said Eirik Haavaldsen, a shipping analyst at Pareto Securities AS in Oslo. “They don’t see that weakness. They are not afraid of China slowing down, or a massive drawdown in inventories.”

There are two main reasons why commodity shipping markets aren’t yet feeling the pinch, according to Espen Fjermestad, who follows shipowners at Fearnley Securities in Oslo. The first is that China’s economy is so far proving resilient, the second is that direct trade between the U.S. and the Asian country is relatively small within the context of overall commodity shipping demand.

Economic Indicator?
Last year, the single biggest agricultural trade between the U.S. and China was soybeans, at 32.9 million tons, data from ITC Trade Map show. Dry-bulk is the largest cargo set in the global shipping industry and will account for about 5.2 billion tons of trade in 2018, according to estimates from Clarkson Research Services Ltd. Total seaborne trade — from oil and gas to containerized goods — will amount to just under 12 billion tons.

Dry-bulk shipping is often viewed as a leading economic indicator because the cargoes represent the very first building blocks for industrial production, whether that’s iron ore to make steel, cement to build roads, or coal to fire power plants. China, the highest-profile target of U.S. President Donald Trump’s trade tariffs, is by far the world’s biggest source of demand — and demand growth — when it comes to raw materials.

Infrastructure Spend
The freight traders’ bullishness may also be because they take the view that China will invest in physical infrastructure to prop up its economy if a trade war with the U.S. does escalate, something that would be bullish, at least in the short term, for the flow of cargoes, according to Haavaldsen.

So far at least, rates for smaller ships that haul agricultural products have been fairly immune from the spat too, despite signs they could take a bigger direct hit than the wider dry-bulk market, he said.

Supramax carriers, typically about a quarter of the size of Capesizes and more commonly used for grain trading, earned an average of about $10,800 a day since the start of 2018, the best rates they’ve commanded since 2011. Contracts for 2019 are higher, at almost $12,000.

On Friday, the U.S. is scheduled to impose tariffs on $34 billion of Chinese goods. Beijing has said it will place tariffs on an equal value of U.S. exports including agricultural and auto exports. While that might erode trade because China is a key buyer of U.S. soybeans, shipments would likely be diverted elsewhere and probably wouldn’t drop to zero, said Jo Ringheim, an analyst at Arctic Securities A/S in Oslo.

Spot shipping rates are normally a function of how many vessels there are compared with the amount of cargo, and forward prices are heavily influenced by what’s going on in the day-to-day charter market. That means vessel supply is a huge driver too, and consequently freight costs can rally when demand is unspectacular so long as enough carriers are being scrapped and new ones aren’t joining the fleet.

Tougher Times
Other parts of the maritime market are having a tougher time, albeit for different reasons. Returns for supertankers delivering Middle East oil to Asia averaged about $11,000, the lowest for a first half of a year since 2013, according to data compiled by Bloomberg. That market is being hurt by oil production curbs led by OPEC, which, despite being eased last month, could still keep almost a supertanker a day of crude off the market for the remainder of this year.

Shares of Hapag-Lloyd AG, the German container shipping line, plunged at the end of last month, leading similar companies lower, when it warned that overcapacity in the industry and rising fuel costs would put a squeeze on profit. It didn’t mention any impact on world trade from Trump’s measures. A total of 54.2 million boxes moved by sea in the first four months, a 4.6 percent gain from a year earlier, World Liner Data Ltd. figures show.

Investors in shipping stocks are in general more concerned about the impact of a trade war than freight traders are, said Ringheim.

Shares in A.P. Moller-Maersk A/S, the largest container line, dropped about 40 percent over the past year. Those of Golden Ocean Group Ltd., a big dry-bulk shipowner, are up just 7 percent this year in Oslo despite a 32 percent surge in forward freight agreements used to hedge, or bet on, Capesize rates in 2019.

“What we have seen is that the dry-bulk FFAs, which we look at every day, have increased a lot,” said Ringheim. “So in my view, the market expectations for the long term have increased, rather than decreased, even though this is a period where we’ve heard about a trade war.”
Source: Bloomberg
06.07.2018 kl 10:00 12903

Fra PAS sin Shipping Daily:

"Capesize momentum still very good, with a tight Atlantic having spill-over effects and the index now firmly above USD 22,000/day. Slower for smaller bulkers though, with grain volumes said to be particularly slow at this point."
06.07.2018 kl 17:55 12640

The Capesize market surpassed market expectations this week, shaking off the predicted World Cup lull, posting higher rates as activity picked up across all the Asia-Pacific
06.07.2018 kl 18:16 12587

Så tar vi med denne her og ønsker god helg til alle:

Bulk report – Week 27
6 July 2018

A punchy week for the big ships that saw Atlantic rates soar, with the tonnage list tight prompting charterers to split cargoes, though, mostly unsuccessfully. Fronthaul rates climbed to the equivalent of over $40,000 daily, with a cargo allegedly fixed on voyage basis from Port Cartier to Japan at a timecharter equivalent of $42,500 daily basis 90 days duration. Transatlantic rates too saw significant gains, with a 165,000-tonne 10% coal cargo from Drummond to Hadera at $13.75, and a 2010, 169,000-tonner not particularly well-described fixing from Gibraltar for a Colombian round voyage at a rate in the upper $20,000s. The Brazil/China rate maintained gains, with a 23-25 July cargo booked from Tubarao to Qingdao at $23.25 and early August cargoes concluded slightly lower. A slower pace initially in the East, but as the week closed out a rumour circulated that a rate in the low $9.00s was fixed for 19 July onwards from West Australia to China, the highest rate seen for over six months. Rio Tinto and BHP Billiton were both active over the week with the former fixing in the upper $8.00s. Delays too were building in China, with bad weather proving an issue. Paper values were also sharply up over the week but so far little period activity was reported.

The Atlantic tonnage list continued to tighten last week, and sentiment was further helped by the appearance of several Cape splits entering the market, as rates there rose rapidly. But more than once charterers found themselves unable to make the business work on smaller ships. The North Atlantic and the Mediterranean also saw more fronthaul trades. Rates crept up throughout the week, with a modern Kamsarmax fixing at close to $20,000 from the Continent via North coast South America to the East. East coast South America was slightly more subdued compared to recent weeks, with the continued threat of cheap Ultramax tonnage but rates just about held their ground with a Kamsarmax fixed at close to $16,000 plus $600,000 ballast bonus for end July arrival, while an August stem fixed on a voyage basis from Santos to North China at $34.75 per mt. The Pacific remained oversupplied, and rumours of Indonesian export problems did little to help owners. Rates softened for all but the very well described Japanese units in premium positions although the period/short period market remained flat due to the strong Cape market and improved paper values.

A mixed week with a growing tonnage lists in Asia putting rates under downward pressure at the end of last week. In contrast, from the Atlantic there was limited activity reported, but as the week closed out certain areas saw a tightening of tonnage especially in the US Gulf and Mediterranean areas.

From the US Gulf, a 56,700-dwt was reported fixed for a trip with grains to Turkey in the upper $13,000s. On fronthaul, an Ultramax was linked to a trip to the Far East in the low $20,000s. Limited activity from East coast South America saw a 57,900-dwt rumoured fixed for a trip to Algeria in the low to mid $13,000s. In the Mediterranean, a 58,000 open Bejaia was fixed for a trip via the Spanish Mediterranean, redelivery West Africa, in the mid $11,000s, whilst for trips from the Black Sea area to the Far East another 58,000 was rumoured fixed in the mid $16,000s. Limited trading from the Continent, with a 56,000 fixed for a scrap run to Turkey at around $12,000.

The Asian market struggled and a 57,000-dwt was reported fixed basis delivery Singapore for a trip via Indonesia redelivery India at $12,000. Later, a 56,900-dwt also open Singapore was booked for a trip via Indonesia, redelivery China, in the low mid $10,000s. Nickel ore runs saw a 57,000 open Lanshan covering also at around $10,500 for a trip to China.

The handy market stayed in the negative zone all week with routes in both basins struggling to show improvement. Sources suggested cargoes circulated in key markets in the Atlantic but low rates were offered curtailed trade. In the Pacific, fixtures reported on the period front included a 32,000-dwt open Onsan with no further details and two medium-sized fixed $9,000 delivery, Lugait, Philippines and $10,500 delivery Samalaju respectively both for two laden legs with redelivery in Singapore/Japan range.

From East coast South America, a 31,000-dwt was fixed for a grain cargo to Dammam at $14,500 early in the week. From the US Gulf, a 35,000-dwt was fixed for scrap cargo to the Mediterranean at approximately $9,750. A 35,000-dwt open US East coast was booked to move wood pellets to the Continent at $11,000. A 38,000-dwt open Canakkale was booked at $8,000 for a run via Constanza to the Adriatic Sea, and another handy-sized open in the same area was fixed $9,000 for a fronthaul run to Thailand. In the East, a large Chinese vessel open in Hong Kong was booked for a trip to the Continent at $8,000 for the first 62 days and $12,000 thereafter. A 35,000-dwt open Thailand was fixed for logs via Malaysia to West coast India also at $8,000. A 28,000-dwt open in Indonesia agreed $10,000 to run via Australia and redeliver in China with concentrates.

For daily dry bulk assessments from the Baltic Exchange please visit
06.07.2018 kl 19:39 12481

Det var fin fredags-lesning, takker, og god helg Sa2ri :)
07.07.2018 kl 08:50 12242

Fredagens kommentar fra Bulls:
Last Signal:STAY LONG
Last Close:69,55 Change:-1,65 Percent change-2,32% Signal Update Our system’s recommendation today is to STAY LONG. The previous BUY signal was issued on 04.07.2018, 2 days ago, when the stock price was 70,70. Since then GOGL.OL has fallen by -1,63%.Market Outlook The market color is grayish with some black dots but we hope that it will change to white. On the positive side, the signal is suggesting to STAY LONG, and yet the stop loss is not triggered. Although these were not the expected results, we still recommend that you STAY LONG and assume a more cautious attitude. more...
09.07.2018 kl 10:42 11817

Ser da fryktelig svak ut i dag GOGL. Ser ut som handelskrig ikke slipper taket i denne, da den er volatil.
09.07.2018 kl 11:23 11726

Lav omsetning. Ratene går muligens minus i dag.. selg
09.07.2018 kl 11:34 11671

Hva legger du til grunn for at ratene skal ned i dag?
09.07.2018 kl 12:02 11616

Oslo (TDN Direkt): Baltic capesize-indeks i dollar er ned 1,9 prosent til 23.823 dollar pr dag, ifølge The Baltic Exchange mandag.
10.07.2018 kl 06:44 11020

Investment Opportunities Abound in the Dry Bulk Shipping Segment
in Dry Bulk Market,Hellenic Shipping News 10/07/2018

Dry bulkers’ prices could offer some scope of research and historical comparison, as shipbroker Intermodal suggests that there are investment opportunities to be found. In a recent weekly note after this year’s Posidonia Exhibition, the shipbroker said that “with the market now at full speed after Posidonia, we believe a comparison between dry bulk asset values and freight rates during the 2016 Posidonia and the respective ones during this year’s exhibition is quite interesting”.

In the Handysize segment, Intermodal’s SnP broker, Mr. Nassos Soulakis said that “the “ex-SH GRACE” (29,828dwt-blt ’06, Shikoku) was sold to Vietnamese buyers in July 2016 for $5.7m. The “ex-ZENITH EXPLORER” (28,343dwt-blt ’08, Imabari) was sold to Greek buyers in April 2018 for $8.2m.
– 43.9% increase in asset values – BHSI: 350 (May 2016/average) & 330 (June 2016/average) VS 589 (May 2018/average) & 586 (June 2018/average)”.

In the Supramax: “The “ex-MAPLE GROVE” (53,474dwt-blt ’06, Imabari) was to Bangladeshi buyers in July 2016 for $7.7m. The “ex-EM SAPPHIRE” (54,768dwt-blt ’09, Oshima) was sold to undisclosed buyers in May 2018 for high $14.0m. (note: 9-yr old but through sold on an en-bloc basis).
-92.2% increase in asset values -BSI: 569 (May 2016/average) & 571 (June 2016/average) VS 1,059 (May 2018/average) & 1,075 (June 2018/average)”

In Kamsarmax The “ex-UNITED TREASURE” (82,926dwt-blt ’06, Tsuneishi) was sold to Greek buyers in June 2016 for $8.4m. The “ex-GOLDEN SPRING” (83,730dwt-blt ’08, Sanoyas) was sold to Greek buyers in late May 2018 for $16.5m.
– 96.4% increase in asset values – BPI: 602 (May 2016/average) & 565 (June 2016/average) VS 1,230 (May 2018/average) & 1,374 (June 2018/average)”, Intermodal’s broker said.

Finally, in the Capesize segment, “the “ex- SEA PULL” (177,533dwt-blt ’06, Mitsui) was sold to Singaporean buyers in July 2016 for $13.75m. The “ex-VOGERUNNER” (176,838dwt-blt ’08, Namura) was sold to S. Korean buyers in late April for $24.1m.
– 75.3% increase in asset values – BCI: 871 (May 2016/average) & 938 (June 2016/average) VS 2,058 (May 2018/average) & 2,024 (June 2018/average)”, he noted.

According to Soulakis, “when looking at the comparisons above, two points become immediately obvious. The first is the very impressive overall improvement in both the second-hand and freight market and the second the relative resistance of 28k dwt Handysize asset values to an increase proportional to the one in earnings. Indeed, while the rest of the sizes display a more proportional increase between rates and asset values this is not the case for 28k dwt Handysize. To be more specific, average rates for the size have increased around 75% from $4,894/day (avg. May-June 2016) to $8,568/day (avg. May-June 2018), while second-hand prices have moved up by 40-50%. Despite the fact that there is no adequate comparison between 2016 and 2018 Handysize >30kdwt sales, market ideas and the few recent transactions show an alignment to the appreciation rate witnessed in the other sizes, further highlighting the lag noticed in the prices of the smaller Handies”.

Intermodal’s broker added that “making a prediction for the market during the 2020 Posidonia is obviously impossible, not only because two years are especially by today’s standards a very long period for accurate forecasts, but also due to the fact that various drivers are simultaneously shaping the markets these days (regulations, trade tariffs etc.) We do think though that just by looking at the above comparisons the usual saying “crisis creates opportunity” comes to mind and maybe a bit of interest should be shifting towards the tanker side as a result”, he concluded.
Nikos Roussanoglou, Hellenic Shipping News Worldwide
10.07.2018 kl 06:46 10983

Dry Bulk Shipping Stocks Are Poised To Jump
in Dry Bulk Market,International Shipping News 10/07/2018

Given all the focus on trade between the U.S. and China, it is interesting that the financial media seem to have missed the most salient indicator. No, it’s not a tweet or a summit meeting, it’s an index; the Baltic Dry Index, to be precise. With a London fixing today of 1,622, the BDI has risen a jaw-dropping 22% since June 22. It is clear that the market for seaborne cargoes of coal, iron ore and grains is red hot right now.

I’ve followed shipping stocks long enough to have grey hair, but I believe this move is real, and shows the true movement of the global economy, not one made to impress voters. Yes, China is still buying raw materials to produce finished goods, and while China is by far the largest consumer of dry bulk goods, the historical rule-of-thumb is that the U.S. only accounts for 4% of global dry bulk trade.

So focusing on Trump and Xi is missing the point. The dry bulk fleet owners I talk to are more bullish on industry fundamentals than they have been for several years, and it is a simple matter of supply and demand. Dry bulk scrappage rates have come down from the record levels of 2016, but still remain elevated versus historic norms and the order book is at very benign levels. Commercial bank financing for the dry bulk sector dried up completely during the crash of 2015-2016 and those loans that weren’t made equate to ships that aren’t being built now.

The shipping industry has the worst reputation among any sector I follow for over-ordering during the good times, but soft credit markets may have finally given these primarily Greek owners some religion.

My current favorites are Navios Maritime, DryShips and Star Bulk. Other names of note include Safe Bulkers, Diana Shipping and Scorpio Bulkers.

These names tend to show seasonal strength as the third quarter progresses and bulk rates improve, but it seems like this year the rates are ahead of the equities, and performance among dry bulk stocks has been mixed for the past month. This is the ultimate cyclical industry, and we’re at an advantageous time in the cycle, so the fact that all the stock prices are not peaking shows the buying opportunity remains.

All of these names trade data significant discount to the “steel value” of their fleets, the net asset value (NAV). Any fleet’s NAV will increase as long-term dry bulk futures increase, as they have along with the short-term spot rates.

Navios, when taking into account the value of its holdings in other shipping subsectors, is trading at at least a 75% discount to steel value, and that’s why I went heavily into the name several weeks ago. Navios may be trading at the most ridiculous discount, but each of the six names I mentioned is trading at a significant discount to NAV, and I would advise researching the individual names further to discover the value.

One note of caution is that not all shipping stocks are created equal. While dry bulk freight rates have popped, rates for oil tanker shipments remain near cycle lows and container ships are still drawing day rates at levels below historical averages. So, make sure you are buying stocks of companies that transport bulk cargoes, and make sure to hold onto these stocks despite all the sturm und drang about a trade war between the U.S. and China.

There will be a day for shipping stock investors to shift from dry bulk into the extremely beaten-down tanker sector, but today is not that day. When industry fundamentals are rising, laser focus is the most lucrative strategy.
Source: Forbes

Takk skal du ha Sa2ri:)
10.07.2018 kl 13:23 10634

Det må tydeligvis bli overtydelig for at folk skal forstå det som er i ferd med å skje innen bulk. Rater og verdier, en uslåelig kombinasjon. Selge et skip, kanskje, bare for å synliggjøre verdiene?
11.07.2018 kl 08:07 10287

"The impressive performance of Capes resumed last week as well, sending the BDI above 1,600 points, a new 2018 high for the index. The surge in earnings for this size have also started providing a boost to the Panamax market, while rates for the smaller bulkers ended the week with minor losses yet again. On the period front, things remained overall quiet, with the split spot market performance still causing confusion as to whether it makes sense to fix periods at this stage. At the same time, the little activity reported mainly concerned Kamsarmax vessels and smaller periods up to 9 months, while numbers suggested unchanged levels compared to last dones.

With rates in the Atlantic on a crazy course and the Pacific market overall steady, it was a particularly good week for Capes, average earnings of which climbed above $24,000/day, a level last visited back in December. Expectations for the following days are less bullish though following the intense fixing of the past days as well as the ground the market has covered in a relatively short period of time.

The surge in Capesize Atlantic rates diverted interest to Panamax vessels and with a number of charterers looking into splitting cargoes, Panamax earnings were given a generous boost as a result. Despite a slightly less busy ECSA, there were some impressive numbers reported for Kamsarmax vessels out of the region, while the market in the East remained positional.

Rates for the smaller sizes stayed negative, with small overall losses noted across all key trading regions, while Supramax tonnage started to see some improvements in USD and Med regions closer to the weekend."
11.07.2018 kl 08:13 10260

Jeg tror gode rater og reprising av skip har liten betydning nå som handelskrigen er i gang - sitter på gjerdet til dette har stabilisert seg!
11.07.2018 kl 11:44 10045

Kan nok fort plukkes opp på lave 60!
11.07.2018 kl 12:18 9972

Sitter nå å ruger på mine enda jeg da. Er det noen som har bdi for Capesize?
11.07.2018 kl 12:58 9920

Det spørs om børsen er den rette plass å ha pengene sine nå? Trump kommer ikke til å gi seg, så da spørs det om han kjører verden i resesjon.
Det mangler jo ikke på advarsler om at vi står foran en skikkelig korreksjon.
Vært kjekt å høre din mening Volf.

11.07.2018 kl 15:21 9752

Kbkristi beklager sent svar er ute på reise.
Du har helt rett børsen er en risikabel plass når Trump er løs, dette du ser her i dag er typisk Trump støy.
Så tilbake til GOGL som jeg skrev i et annet innlegg på en annen tråd for ca en ca uke siden så var det nødvendig for GOGL å bryte motstand ved ca kr 72 for å gå videre det klarte den ikke og falt dermed under kr 69 til ca kr 68 før den stoppet,Nå er der dannet ny svak motstand på kr 70,70 som må brytes før videre oppgang til motstand ved kr 72 og så videre til motstand ved 76.
Slik jeg leser min graf nå ser det ut som vi får ørkenvandring mellom kr 72 og ned til støtten på 66-67 de neste ukene til Trump får bestemt seg. Dette er en drømme situasjon for en som liker å shorte.
Skal komme tilbake med mere informasjon når jeg får studert krystall kulen bedre (har den ikke med på reisen)
Ha en fin dag og forhåpentligvis innbringende.
11.07.2018 kl 15:38 9738

Takk for at du tar deg tid til å svare Volf. Du frykter ikke at en større korreksjon er like om hjørnet?
11.07.2018 kl 16:10 9698

Umulig å si Kbkristi men vær forebrett på alt, så vær aldri langt fra salgsknappen men angående GOGL så vil den vandre slik som beskrevet over de neste ukene.
Ha en fin kveld.
12.07.2018 kl 07:18 9397

Oslo (TDN Direkt): Capesize-ratene fortsetter å være ekstremt volatile, der slutten mot forrige uke så en sterk økning i ratene, mens starten på denne uken så et massivt fall. Det meste av volatiliteten har vært i Stillehavsmarkedet.

Det skriver Fearnleys i sin ukentlige rapport onsdag.

I panamax-segmentet ratene blitt presset betydelig høyere i Nord-Atlanteren denne uken, som følge av et skarpt fall i betydelig tonnasje.

Innen supramax er atmosfæren bedre i Atlanteren, og også Svartehavs-markedet henter seg inn, med flere kornlaster i sikte.

TCT Cont/Fjern-Østen 40.000 42.500 18.000/42.500
Tubarao/Rotterdam (jernmalm) 10,50 10,00 5,30/10,50
Richards Bay/Rotterdam (kull) 9,40 9,00 5,40/10,00
Atlanterhavet rundreise 13.000 10.000 7.100/13.750
TC Kontinentet/Østen 20.200 18.000 15.000/20.200
TC Østen/Kontinentet 5.100 5.100 4.300/5.200
TC Østen, rundreise 9.800 9.800 9.000/13.750
Atlanterhavet, rundreise 12.000 11.000 11.000/16.000
Stillehavet, rundreise 9.000 9.750 8.000/12.500
TC Kontinentet/Østen 18.000 17.000 16.000/20.500
Capesize 180' dwt 19.500 19.700 17.000/20.000
Capesize 170' dwt 17.000 17.500 15.750/18.000
Panamax 75' dwt 13.000 12.400 11.250/14.000
Supramax 53' dwt 11.900 11.950 10.000/13.000

TDN Direkt, +47 21 95 60 70
12.07.2018 kl 07:23 9380

Dry Bulk FFA: Capesize Market Not Yet Quite Bullish
in Dry Bulk Market,International Shipping News 11/07/2018

Capesize Commentary
Early trading saw paper slip further as talk of sub 8.50 fixing and talk of F/H sliding below 40k circulated the market. The indices were marked down accordingly which seemed to stem the losses and stabilise paper. A quiet period over lunch was followed by a sharp push up on the prompt contracts without much clarity during the rush. There was talk of three fresh cargoes in the market but little in the way of stronger fixtures or bullish talk as the day drew to an end.

Panamax Commentary
We witnessed further gains across the curve on Panamax paper as the already firmer ATL mkt is complimented by some increased enquiry out of the Pac. With the index once again showing some sharp gains we saw buyers upping there ideas on prompts post index with July adding $400 on the day to print $12000 high and Aug adding $550 to print $12650 high nudging Q3 up to $12500 high. Further out there was little change as levels remained range bound.

Supramax Commentary
Supramax paper witnessed some early bid support with after a rather dull day opened the week yesterday. The Sep was seen trading $12,000 and the Q3 saw $11550 and $11600 trade. After a slightly negative index -$12 index but a strong Pmx index, the afternoon continued to see the market bid support and rates tick up as Q3 was paid $11650. Have a good evening.

Handysize Commentary
Quiet day on handy paper with no reported trading.

Source: Freight Investor Services
12.07.2018 kl 12:32 9194

Da er det litt over en måned siden DCE startet med å åpne futures for iron ore opp for utenlandske tradere, investorer og andre tilfeldige forbipasserende. Oppsummeringen om hvordan den første tiden har vært, finner dere i linken under.

For de spesielt interesserte, som lurer på bakgrunnen for dette og måten dette blir gjort på, så kan denne linken være en fin start i sommervarmen
Redigert 12.07.2018 kl 12:35 Du må logge inn for å svare
12.07.2018 kl 14:02 9065

Oslo (TDN Direkt): Golden Ocean kjøpte torsdag 1,4 millioner dollar i selskapets konvertible lån 2014/2019 til kurs 99,05 prosent av pålydende, ifølge en melding torsdag.


TDN Direkt, +47 21 95 60 70
12.07.2018 kl 18:19 8904

Lite fart på shipping over dammen. kr 68,50 der nå, og det er kun Gogl og Sea som holder hodet såvidt over vannlinjen.
Noen som har noe info om hvorfor?
Og Kjepet, hvor er det blitt av deg da?
12.07.2018 kl 19:26 8922

Dagens fra Bulls:
Last Signal:STAY LONG
Last Close:69,10 Change:0,0000 Percent change0,00% Signal Update Our system’s recommendation today is to STAY LONG. The previous BUY signal was issued on 04.07.2018, 8 days ago, when the stock price was 70,70. Since then GOGL.OL has fallen by -2,26%.
Market Outlook There is now an ominous undertone in the market and there may be more sadness. The bears that triggered the bearish stop loss are gaining strength and we now consider cutting our bullish bet. SHORT is a dangerous signal. Sudden increases in prices can lead to huge losses. For this reason stop loss levels must be kept in mind at all times and SHORT orders must never be placed without a stop loss. more...
13.07.2018 kl 02:09 8760

Nasdaq går opp med 1,39 %, Drys faller med 1,58%.. Dette stemmer ikke, så jeg holder penga utenfor børs! Har blitt lurt før, og skal ikke gjenta feilen, håper jeg!
Trump har vært i møte med Europa, og likte slett ikke noe av det. Når han kommer hjem og får twittret, så faller børsen som ein stein.
Har hatt abstinens når jeg har vært uten Gogl, men nå er jeg livredd for å være natta over!.
Et børsfall starter ikke i Norge. Det starter i Trumpland. Og når vi våkner plutselig en dag i nær framtid, så har børsene falt 5 %, selg da og du driver kursen ytterligere 5 %!

Tapte stort sist Gogl var på høyden, og jeg var så forelsket!
Nå er jeg blitt mer Volf, men tør ikke shorte :)
Happy trading :)
Redigert 13.07.2018 kl 02:36 Du må logge inn for å svare
13.07.2018 kl 06:04 8725

Volumet på malmen, som vi skal holde vår lit til, er minimal. Har aldri sett så lite volumbalanse, som Kjepet pleier å si.
Før siste økt er den på kun 544.596. Det er bare til å fylle sjarken, og slett ikke noen Caper.
Og da får vi vel også svaret på spørsmålet jeg spurte om i går kveld!
Shit happens, and happy trading!
13.07.2018 kl 07:03 8683

Ingen tør vel fylle opp en Cape, før hotellsjefen i Nevada har fått tvitret seg gjennom helga. Han skapte vel ikke så mange varige venner i Europa!
13.07.2018 kl 08:53 8574

Kineserne er sansynligvis tilbake til forhandlingsbordet innen kort tid.
Kineserne kan ikke svare på siste usa toll og da må kineserne komme usa imøte.Samtidig varsler USAs finansminister Steven Mnuchin ifølge nyhetsbyrået at samtaler kan gjenopptas hvis Kina er åpne for å ta «seriøse grep
13.07.2018 kl 10:05 8465

At Trump er utradisjonell og lite opptatt av venner er vel bevist.
Men han setter fingeren på en del fundamentale forhold.
NATO - USA har tradisjonelt brukt nær dobbelt så mye midler på forsvar som europeiske land. (Norge var vel på sitt lavnivå under Stoltenberg regjeringen.) USA har store tropper og våpen lagret i Europa - til store kostnader for USA og store inntekter for Europa(lokalt forbruk).
Kina - fikk store unntak mht forurensning i Kyoto - eller rettere sagt Kina nektet i 1990 å akseptere noen krav til begrensning av forurensning hvilket gjorde at USA vegret seg for å engasjere seg dypt i dette og ratifiserte aldri avtalen. Like mye som forurensning er et miljøspørsmål så er det et handelspolitisk spørsmål - hvem kan produsere til lavest kost. Ikke fornuftig miljømessig, men det handler om å overleve. Kina har hatt en enorm vekst. Dette har endret handelsbalansen og at USA setter ned foten for en mer akseptabel handelsbalanse kommer nettop uventet.
Patenter og varemerke rettigheter - vanskelig å forfølge i Kina og kopiering likeså - Kina har innsett dette og tilbyr å rette på dette.
Bare noe eksempler. Skal Trump lykkes med sin politikk må han snarlig over i en løsningsfase for å kunne vise til resultater før gjenvalg.
Tror derfor at dagens situasjon ikke kommer til å vare lenge - se på USA - Mexico uoverensstemmelsene.
Jeg tror vi snart vil se solid vekst i verdenshandelen.
13.07.2018 kl 11:52 8346

laser her setter du fingeren på de riktige tingene og konklusjonene kunne ikke skrevet det bedre selv.
ha en fin dag.
13.07.2018 kl 14:20 8198

ARC har akkurat sluppet en oppdatering på bulk. Klipper inn to avsnitt fra analysen som bør være av interesse for de som eier, eller har tenkt å eie GOGL:

"Capesize rates entering peak season on a high note

Since hovering around the ~USD 15k/d mark from mid-May until the end of June, Capesize rates have been showing considerable strength. In the FFA market, the July 2018 contract has gained ~USD 2.1k/d over the last two days, and is currently trading at ~USD 22.7k/d (which compares to ~USD 15.5k/d in end-June). Activity is high, and we are hearing about Capesize spot fixtures at levels as high as ~USD 30.5k/d in the Atlantic. Based on the normal seasonal pattern, Capesize rates usually turn in the end of July, meaning that we are now entering peak season on a high note. As such, there is a good chance that rate expectations for H2/18 are too low.

Stocks have not moved with the market – Despite the fact that the Capesize market has improved considerably over the last 2-3 weeks, dry bulk shipping stocks have been rather dull. Since 26 June, 5 out of the 7 dry bulk names that we cover are down. Golden Ocean, Star Bulk and Genco (the three owners of Capes in our universe) have lost 3%, 9% and 9%, respectively. The looming US-China trade war as well as some weakness in commodity prices are factors that have weighed on the stocks, however, we note that for iron ore, a full blown trade war between the US and China will have very little impact. As such, the Capesize owners have lagged the dry bulk FFAs, and we consider the increased price divergence as well as the potential for significant upwards earnings revisions a buying opportunity."

Ønsker med dette alle en riktig god helg!
Redigert 13.07.2018 kl 14:21 Du må logge inn for å svare
16.07.2018 kl 20:54 7677

Cape FFA: Rates continued to push in both oceans and paper moved further north - July to 23500, August to 21500 and Q4 to 24000 Cal 19 in good size at 19250. Sellers were tempted as PM progressed out but with phys looking solid, its hard to see a collapse on the horizon.

Jeg forstår prinsippet bak det å shorte, men kan noen forklare meg hvorfor Old Mutal har økt shorten sin med 1 million aksjer, siden slutten av mai? Nå som markedet etter sigende skal være stigende. De kan jo ha en lengre horisont eller satse på noen av Trumps helsvarte jokere, slår beina under markedet? Kanskje de ser det samme mørke bildet, som Ron Paul, hvor aksjemarkedet skal halvere seg?
17.07.2018 kl 09:23 7275

Meget enkelt forklart så er det i enkelte tilfeller lettere å tjene penger på å shorte eller å kjøpe aksjen og håpe på kursoppgang og det gjelder spesielt GOGL.
GOGL vil nå falle til kr 67-68 før den igjen gjør et forsøk på å bryte motstand ved kr 72.
Som jeg skrev tidligere er jeg redd for vandring mellom kr KR 67 til motstand på kr 72 som er meget fint trading intervall-
Lykke til.
17.07.2018 kl 10:03 7184

Du har vist deg å være usedvanlig treffsikker i dine prognoser rundt GOGL, Volf: når tror du den bryter gjennom motstanden og hva må eventuelt til for at det skal skje?