Øker kursmålet i Crayon


Expansion for free and the Nordics at a discount


Conclusion
Our take is to view Crayon as a portfolio of assets, with several moving parts, where the #1 must win battle is twofold. First, as some investors and analysts put zero value on the international expansion, Crayon need to deliver YoY improvements in EBITDA in the Nordic Markets to improve the value of the company. Second, with a portfolio of assets with moving parts, it is important to deliver on aggregate and show sequential improvement in trailing 12m EBITDA. Indeed, our take is that Crayon will be able to deliver on one out of two with improved performance in the Nordics, driven by an extension of the recovery in the services business witnessed during 2H17. Hence, we have upped our EBITDA in the Nordics with 2%, which unfortunately is offset by changes in mgmt. in USA, which negatively affected 1Q18 figures and some higher HQ cost. Therefore, we are left with 1) zero aggregated estimate changes, 2) increased EBITDA in the Nordics and 3) multiple expansion among Nordic peers, which make us reiterate our Buy and lift our target to NOK18. That being said, we have limited conviction ahead of 1Q18, with among other Easter effect coming into play, and do not recommend our clients to take a bet on the figures. As such, our new target price is based on a long-term view on the prospects of Crayon.

Our analysis
· Zero aggregated estimate changes
We make zero aggregated estimate changes ahead of 1Q18. However, we have upped EBITDA with 2% in the Nordics in ‘18e based on 1) an extension of the recovery in the services business witnessed during 2H17 and 2) strong services performance from peers already reported. This is offset by changes in mgmt. in USA and higher HQ cost.
· Currently, lack of confidence in the company…
Crayon has disappointed two quarters in a row and hence, it is fair that investors need several quarters to get back the trust of the company. Our rule of thumb states two solid quarters for each weak quarter. Nevertheless, with guidance not including any positive outcome of the partner incentive changes from 4Q18, we argue worst case scenario already is factored in both expectations and find risk/reward attractive
· …offset plenty of valuation support
On the current share price, we argue investors get the international expansion free and the Nordics at a discount. Indeed, we attribute NOK14 per share to the Nordics (‘18e EV/EBITDA of 10x) and NOK4 to the expansion (EV/IC 1x ’14-16 invested capital). Coupled with upped estimates in the Nordics and multiple expansion among peers, we reiterate our Buy rec, but up our target from NOK15 to NOK18. Our target price correspond to an implied 2017A and 2018e EV/EBITDA of 13.9x and 11.8x, respectively. Moreover, it also translate into ‘18e OpFCF yield (EBITDA – capex) of 8.2% and ‘18e and ‘19e adjusted P/E of 23.2x and 17.9x, respectively
Odin
09.04.2019 kl 13:18 577

Handelen har våknet til liv og volumet har økt betraktelig den siste tiden. Og kursen stiger. Nærmer seg 20 % siden forrige tirsdag.

Crayon skal videre opp og vi passerer 20-tallet om kort tid. Veien videre mot kursmålene til DNB og Sparebank1 starter nå.

Q1-tallene presenteres om nøyaktig en måned.
StiKri
24.04.2019 kl 23:32 477

Hva er denne handelen på 2 972 716 aksjer etter børs tid ?
Bossum
26.04.2019 kl 12:07 408

Det viste seg å være konkurrenten SoftwareOne som kjøpte 3 mill aksjer på onsdag. Kommer vel ikke som en bombe om bud på hele selskapet er nært forestående.
aitik
02.05.2019 kl 10:30 35

Innlegget er slettet av aitik