Gogl

eriksu2
15.07.2019 kl 19:43 12251

hva skjer i Gogl om dagen? Er det ffa q1 og q2 neste år som holder igjen kursen og bekymringer rundt handelsavtale?
Volf og veblen fint om dere kunne delt tanker rundt dette..

Siden den er en av få tråder uten ticker er den også veldig lett å finne!
Sector
19.07.2019 kl 12:10 4209

BULK:BALTIC CAPESIZE-INDEKS +1,7% TIL USD 32.765/DAG

Oslo (TDN Direkt): Baltic capesize-indeks er opp 1,7 prosent til 32.765 dollar pr dag, ifølge The Baltic Exchange fredag.

TDN Direkt finans@tdn.no

Volf
19.07.2019 kl 12:23 4106

BULK:BRAEMAR ACM SIER CA 50 VLOC VIL GÅ I TØRRDOKK MOT SLUTTEN AV 2019
Oslo (TDN Direkt): Braemar ACM sier nær 50 av Vales VLOCer vil gå i tørrdokk mot slutten av 2019 for å installere scrubbere, samt at dette "utvilsomt" vil løfte capesize-markedet.

Det melder Tradewinds fredag.

-Utvilsomt vil tapet av VLOCer de neste seks månedene eller så hjelpe til med å balansere cape-markedet, med skip som blir sluttet inn for å erstatte midlertidig lavere VLOC-kapasitet, sier James Johnston i Braemar ACM ifølge bransjeavisen.

HH, finans@tdn.no

TDN Direkt, +47 21 95 60 70

He he så bra, nå har vi altså beste ratene på mer enn 5 år og NÅ kommer melding om at dette vil løfte ratene.
Samtidig med at kursen ikke på noe vis har tatt av enda.
b66240
19.07.2019 kl 13:16 3905

Hva blir utbytte med disse ratene?
Sector
19.07.2019 kl 14:11 3761

Freight futures am update Capesize flat Panamax up ~3%
Bassefix
19.07.2019 kl 14:28 3698

BULK:BALTIC DRY-INDEKSEN +1,9% TIL 2.170 POENG

14:03
Oslo (TDN Direkt): Baltic Dry-indeksen er opp 1,9 prosent til 2.170 poeng, ifølge The Baltic Exchange fredag.

Baltic Dry +1,9%

Capesize +1,7%

Panamax +1,7%

Handysize +1,2%

Supramax +2,8%

Baltic Dry-indeksen angis i poeng. Resterende
Bassefix
19.07.2019 kl 15:10 3578

Ser sku da meget godt ud de sidste måneder


Baltic Dry-indeksen angis i poeng. Resterende segmenter er snittrater i dollar pr dag.

Dato BDI Capesize Panamax Handysize Supramax

19.07.19 2.170 32.765 17.348 7.225 11.282

18.07.19 2.130 32.219 17.053 7.137 10.979

17.07.19 2.064 31.073 16.661 7.059 10.704

16.07.19 2.011 30.157 16.396 6.997 10.434

15.07.19 1.928 28.579 15.919 6.924 10.231



12.07.19 1.865 27.389 15.536 6.926 10.112

11.07.19 1.816 26.705 15.018 6.868 9.897

10.07.19 1.777 26.403 14.300 6.792 9.717

09.07.19 1.759 26.367 13.886 6.722 9.602

08.07.19 1.725 25.822 13.534 6.673 9.530



05.07.19 1.740 26.444 13.295 6.595 9.435

04.07.19 1.700 26.085 12.539 6.540 9.344

03.07.19 1.549 23.214 11.465 6.491 9.216

02.07.19 1.446 21.076 10.971 6.481 9.116

01.07.19 1.381 19.824 10.547 6.515 9.067



28.06.19 1.354 19.360 10.301 6.523 9.014

27.06.19 1.340 19.296 9.960 6.543 8.962

26.06.19 1.317 19.117 9.550 6.540 8.852

25.06 19 1.280 18.539 9.221 6.550 8.739

24.06.19 1.258 18.287 8.914 6.544 8.626



21.06.19 1.239 17.947 8.795 6.530 8.570

20.06.19 1.194 16.869 8.837 6.486 8.483

19.06.19 1.179 16.493 8.917 6.429 8.392

18.06.19 1.135 15.424 8.974 6.378 8.303

17.06.19 1.093 14.400 9.035 6.303 8.202



14.06.19 1.085 14.203 9.085 6.276 8.152

13.06.19 1.062 13.621 9.135 6.269 8.094

12.06.19 1.080 13.989 9.236 6.237 8.106

11.06.19 1.105 14.489 9.373 6.202 8.128



07.06.19 1.138 15.007 9.736 6.175 8.173

06.06.19 1.138 14.769 9.997 6.118 8.242

05.06.19 1.141 14.561 10.303 6.070 8.300

04.06.19 1.122 13.916 10.458 6.041 8.378

03.06.19 1.103 13.258 10.618 6.011 8.468



31.05.19 1.096 12.987 10.705 5.969 8.511

30.05.19 1.097 12.965 10.740 5.943 8.556

29.05.19 1.107 13.163 10.712 5.912 8.624

28.05.19 1.082 12.583 10.593 5.907 8.693



24.05.19 1.066 12.243 10.446 5.881 8.764

23.05.19 1.068 12.403 10.308 5.862 8.768

22.05.19 1.059 12.301 10.150 5.826 8.757

21.05.19 1.049 12.131 10.066 5.803 8.731

20.05.19 1.041 11.949 10.050 5.775 8.727



17.05.19 1.040 11.909 10.042 5.763 8.738

16.05.19 1.032 11.705 10.023 5.728 8.757

15.05.19 1.032 11.758 9.953 5.704 8.754

14.05.19 1.043 12.134 9.837 5.701 8.737

13.05.19 1.026 11.856 9.694 5.711 8.712



10.05.19 1.013 11.621 9.592 5.715 8.673

09.05.19 974 10.708 9.548 5.716 8.630

08.05.19 940 9.944 9.509 5.712 8.569

07.05.19 936 9.898 9.514 5.712 8.479



03.05.19 985 11.182 9.524 5.720 8.390

02.05.19 1.032 12.346 9.516 5.751 8.431

01.05.19 1.031 9.499 5.780 8.507

30.04.19 1.011 11.718 9.503 5.764 8.575

29.04.19 913 9.203 9.513 5.794 8.664




HH, finans@tdn.no
TDN Direkt, +47 21 95 60 70
Redigert 19.07.2019 kl 15:13 Du må logge inn for å svare

Takk skal du ha, Bassefix, den her statistikken er kjekk å ha
Ling
19.07.2019 kl 16:01 3433

Først får vi q2 i slutten av august og det skal godt gjøres om det blir pluss resultat. Holder ratene seg på dette nivået vi har i slutten av august så tror jeg jf gir 2-5 cent i utbytte.
Bassefix
19.07.2019 kl 16:20 3398

Ja det var så uge 29. Vi kom ikke i 60 men det gør vi nok i næste uge. Må håbe at Kina og USA få snakket godt samme i dag så vi kommer tættere på en handels aftale.
Kan i have en god weekend alle GOGL aktionærer vi snakkes i næste uge
laser
19.07.2019 kl 16:32 3366

Q1 cash flow tillot mer enn 2,5 cent utbytte, trolig hold de litt igjen - bl.a for tilbakekjøp. Q2 blir begredelig resultatmessig - men kanskje ikke utbyttemessig. Jeg tror de med dagens marked løser litt på bremsene og slår forventningene - jeg tror 7,5 cent utbytte
KJEPET
19.07.2019 kl 17:15 3286

Da ser det ut som om Zuccas innlegg for 14 dager siden, som for øvrig er slettet av administrator, bare var en overreaksjon fra en frustrert aksjonær. Vedkommende har ikke bidratt med noe annet enn det ene oppgulpet av et personangrep. Forøvrig trist å bruke nicket til en hedersmann som Zuccarello, til å spre eder og galle.

Når det er sagt så vil jeg også få takke de, etterhvert mange, trofaste debattantene her inne for støtten. Da har jeg planer om å fortsatt delta i debattene igjen, og dele det jeg kommer over av interessant informasjon om tørrlast generelt og Gogl spesielt.

Mye har skjedd de siste 14 dagene. Godt å se at fler og fler nå også peker på betydningen av meget lave jernmalmlagre i Kina og Brucutus gjeninntreden i markedet. Det måtte jo gå slik, om ikke Kina skulle slutte å produsere stål :-)

God helg goglvenner!
Schenk
19.07.2019 kl 18:31 3186

Strålende, Kjepet!!! Og god helg!

Så flott KJEPET. Er stor fan av dine solide analyser og faglig oppdatering.
Bassefix
19.07.2019 kl 21:28 2954

Iran grain ships stuck in Brazil without fuel due to U.S. sanctions
in Dry Bulk Market,International Shipping News 19/07/2019


Two Iranian vessels have been stranded for weeks at Brazilian ports, unable to head back to Iran due to lack of fuel, which state-run oil firm Petrobras refuses to sell them due to sanctions imposed by the United States.

The vessels Bavand and Termeh came to Brazil a couple months ago carrying urea, a petrochemical product used as fertilizer. They were expected to load corn and return to Iran, but lacked enough fuel for the trip, the port operator in Paranaguá told Reuters.

Food is not covered by U.S. sanctions, and Iran is one of the largest buyers of Brazil’s agricultural commodities, importing more than 2.5 million tonnes of Brazilian corn so far this year — more than any other country.

However, that trade is not usually carried by ships flying the Iranian flag. When the vessels are Iranian, they usually come with enough fuel to return without refueling.

Bavand and Termeh were among several ships owned by Iranian state company Sapid Shipping Co that have brought urea to Brazil this year and returned with corn. Urea is included in the U.S. sanctions, but a local company decided to take that business.

Iran is working to boost petrochemical sales as sanctions hammer its oil industry. The Brazilian urea market was one target.

The main supplier of bunker fuel for ships in Brazil is Transpetro, a subsidiary of Petroleo Brasileiro SA, or Petrobras, as the state-run company is known. Petrobras confirmed it had declined to fuel the ships and cited the sanctions.

“The vessels were included by the United States in the Specially Designated Nationals and Blocked Persons List (SDN),” said Petrobras in a statement, adding that selling the fuel would make it subject to penalties since it operates in the United States and has shares listed in New York.

Sapid Shipping tried unsuccessfully in Paraná courts to force Petrobras to fuel the ships, according to a person familiar with the case, who spoke on condition of anonymity.

Sapid did not respond to requests for comment. It was not clear whether the Iranian ships had tried to buy bunker fuel from smaller suppliers in Brazil.

“The vessels are stuck there. Nobody is able to intermediate the sale of bunker fuel for them,” said a fertilizer trader familiar with the matter, who also requested anonymity.

If the vessels are unable to find a fuel company that does not follow U.S. sanctions, a solution of last resort could be for Iran to send a ship with fuel resupply to Brazil.

The ships are at bay in the Paranaguá port in southern Paraná state, the port’s press service confirmed to Reuters. The Bavand is loaded with 50,000 tonnes of corn, while the Termeh remains scheduled to load 66,000 tonnes of corn.

Before Paranaguá, the ships moored at the Imbituba port in Santa Catarina state, where they unloaded the urea.

Brazilian grain exporters association ANEC expressed dismay at the quandary of the Iranian vessels at Paranaguá.

“The vessels from all other exporters continue to operate without problems. I don’t expect any impact from this to that trade. Food is out of sanctions,” said ANEC’s director Sérgio Mendes.

Brazil’s right-wing President Jair Bolsonaro has worked to forge closer relations with U.S. President Donald Trump as well as Iranian foe Israel.
Source: Reuters (Reporting by Marcelo Teixeira and Roberto Samora in Sao Paulo; Marta Nogueira and Rodrigo Viga Gaier in Rio de Janeiro; Additional reporting by Jonathan Saul in London; Editing by Cynthia Osterman)
Torine
20.07.2019 kl 00:06 2782

Beskjeden oppgang for Gogl i USA fredag, 0,9%. Safe Bulkers gikk imidlertid opp 11,8%. Fortsetter dagens ratenivå blir det hyggelig fremover.

Et eller annet sier meg at utsiktene, tilsynelatende, er litt for gode ifht. kurs.
Sector
20.07.2019 kl 02:30 2702

Hjertelig velkommen tilbake Kjepet!😊👍
Bassefix
20.07.2019 kl 08:20 2588



Home / Shipping News / Dry Bulk Market / Capesize bulker rates are ‘electrifying’


Capesize bulker rates are ‘electrifying’
in Dry Bulk Market,International Shipping News 20/07/2019


This may be the time for the summer doldrums, but ocean shipping freight rates and charter markets are far from sleepy. Rates that were good last week are even better this week.

Dry bulk remains the biggest story. Bulker rates, especially those for ships booked in the Atlantic Basin, are reaching levels not seen in years.

Meanwhile, freight rates are on the upswing for containers bound for the U.S., and the liquefied natural gas (LNG) shipping segment continues to slowly gain traction, albeit not at the pace seen at this time last year.

It’s all about the BDI

It has been a long time since the Baltic Dry Index (BDI) has garnered this many headlines.

The BDI is a daily composite of time-charter averages of Capesizes – bulkers of 100,000 deadweight tons (DWT) or more – Panamaxes (65,000-90,000 DWT) and Supramaxes (45,000-60,000 DWT).

You cannot directly trade the BDI, although an exchange-traded fund has been developed (NYSE: BDRY) to approximate its moves through the purchase of futures contracts pegged to the underlying time-charter indices.

On July 17, the BDI reached 2,064, its highest level since December 2013, five-and-a-half years ago. If it climbs much higher, it will hit levels not seen since 2010, nine years ago. The all-time high of the BDI was 11,793 in May 2008; unprecedented BDI levels recorded in 2007-08 are generally considered a one-off event that has never been seen before or since.

“It’s another electric day in the Capesize market,” proclaimed Clarksons Platou Securities analyst Frode Mørkedal in a client note on July 18. “Demand out of Brazil has acted as the catalyst for a surge in rates in both basins, with earnings reported this morning at the highest level since December 2013.” According to Clarksons, Capesize rates are $32,200 per day, up 18 percent week-on-week and up 116 percent month-on-month.

“In the Panamax segments, rates have improved on the continued tight market in the Atlantic, and a steady Pacific,” said Mørkedal. Clarksons reported that on July 18, Panamax rates were $17,600 per day, up 13 percent week-on-week and 65 percent month-on-month.

Panamax demand has two key drivers. First, larger Capesizes are scarce in the Atlantic Basin, both because they’re being soaked up by the Brazil-to-China iron-ore trade and because they’re being pulled from service for installation of ‘scrubbers,’ which are required for vessels that continue to burn high-sulfur fuel after the global sulfur cap on marine fuel and emissions is enacted on January 1, 2020.

Because of the scarcity of Capesizes, loads that would normally be carried on Capesizes are being split into smaller parcels and loaded on Panamaxes, increasing Panamax rates.

The second driver for Panamax rates is South American soybeans. “With no trade deal between the U.S. and China in place yet, it seems that Chinese buyers have leaned back to Brazilian grains to rebuild inventories,” said Mørkedal.

Despite all this good news, there is understandable skepticism regarding the fate of dry bulk rates. According to the latest weekly report of Athens-based ship brokerage Intermodal, “It is only natural that a number of market participants that have lived through the wild ups and downs during the past years remain cautious. The second half of the summer will test how fundamentally strong the market really is.”

Public companies with spot Capesize and Panamax spot exposure: Genco Shipping & Trading (NYSE: GNK), Golden Ocean (NASDAQ: GOGL), Scorpio Bulkers (NYSE: SALT), Star Bulk (NASDAQ: SBLK), Safe Bulkers (NYSE: SB), Seanergy (NASDAQ: SHIP)
Redigert 20.07.2019 kl 08:22 Du må logge inn for å svare
Bassefix
20.07.2019 kl 08:33 2565

Indian utilities’ coal imports in H119 rise over 53% from year ago
in Dry Bulk Market,Freight News 20/07/2019


Coal imports by Indian coal utilities during the first half of 2019 rose 53.4% from a year earlier to 35.47 million tonnes, data provided by India’s Central Electricity Authority (CEA) showed.

Demand for seaborne coal imports in India has risen because of a fast rising population and the unavailability of alternative fuels such as natural gas.

Imports for power plants at the port of Mundra, in western India’s state of Gujarat, made up 42% of all imports by Indian utilities during the first half of 2019.

Imports by Adani Power Ltd’s Mundra plant more than quadrupled from a year earlier to 9.01 million tonnes, while coal shipments by Tata Power Ltd’s utility rose over 6% to 6.07 million tonnes.

The utilities have been ramping up imports of thermal coal after India’s top court in October eased their earlier stance and paved the way for passing on increased generation costs to consumers.

The power plants were forced to cut imports and slash electricity generation after the court barred them from increasing prices for customers in 2016, after their coal supplier Indonesia raised the price of coal.

NTPC Ltd, India’s largest electricity generator, shipped in 1.4 million tonnes of coal to various ports during six months ended June 2019, about 11 times of what it imported a year ago.

Coal is among the top five commodities imported by India, and about three-fifths of its thermal coal imports come from Indonesia, while less than one-sixth is imported from South Africa.

Thermal coal imports rose at the fastest pace in four years in 2018, after two straight years of decline.

Indian utilities are importing more as the government has failed to open the industry to competition because bureaucratic indecision and resistance from unions has stalled the passage of a liberalization policy approved by the country’s cabinet 16 months ago.

Higher Indian coal imports are a boon for international miners such as Indonesia’s Adaro Energy, U.S. coal miner Peabody Energy Corp and global commodity merchants such as Glencore PLC.

They also undercut efforts by Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s government to cut imports and place additional burdens on India’s debt-ridden thermal power sector.
Source: Reuters (Reporting by Sudarshan Varadhan; editing by Christian Schmollinger)
Bertelli
20.07.2019 kl 08:42 2551

Frontline går nok bra opp på mandag grunnet Irans opptreden i Hormuz stredet. Hvordan pleier det å gå med tørrbulkaksjene i en slik situasjon?
Bassefix
20.07.2019 kl 17:20 2277

How to go ‘straight to the freight’ when betting on dry bulk
in Dry Bulk Market,International Shipping News 20/07/2019


Dry bulk – iron ore, coal, grains and other mineral and agricultural commodities – is by far the world’s largest cargo segment. With rates rising after an extended slump, what’s the best way for investors to capture the upside in this massive market?

One of the most innovative options is the Breakwave Dry Bulk Shipping ETF (NYSE: BDRY), an exchange-traded fund (ETF) launched in March 2018 that owns and tracks bulker freight futures. Not surprisingly given what’s going on with bulker rates, BDRY is now gaining more traction after a quiet start.

FreightWaves conducted an extensive interview with John Kartsonas, founder of Breakwave Advisors, which created BDRY. He discussed how his product contrasts with other dry bulk investment options, as well as his views on what’s ahead for the dry bulk market.

Between March 31 and July 15, the price of BDRY surged 84 percent. “Over the last six months, our trading volumes have increased ten-fold over the previous six months, which has a lot to do with the market volatility,” said Kartsonas.

“Returns come out of volatility. Obviously, the [dry bulk] market has done extremely well over the last six months, and BDRY has performed much better than dry bulk shipping stocks, which is easy to see by just pulling up a chart.”

He maintained that the ETF model “allows you to bypass all of the issues that other investment vehicles like shipping stocks face and go straight to the freight.”

Investing option 1: Buying ships

There are four main options for betting on dry bulk freight rates. The first, which is by far the most difficult, is buying, operating and selling ships.

“There are not many people who have the ability to buy these assets,” said Kartsonas. “You have to find them, and there are a lot of costs associated with buying them. Then you have to run them, and there are a lot of risks associated with that; you have an asset floating all over the world and a lot of things can go wrong.

“You also have to capture the market. If you have one ship and you fix [charter] that ship today and tomorrow the market jumps 20 percent, you’re not capturing the market, so you may not get the averages,” he said. To capture the market, you need a lot of ships. That raises the stakes considerably.

“Finally, you have to have an exit strategy,” he said. Many of the investment funds that speculatively bought bulker fleets in 2013-14 thought they were going to exit via an initial public offering, but that has proven impossible.

Another exit option is selling the ships in the secondhand market. “There are costs associated with selling the ship and finding a buyer, and it can be very illiquid. So far this year, I think there have been only three Capesize ships that have changed hands,” he said, referring to the class of bulker that has capacity of 100,000 deadweight tons (DWT) or more.

“If you are a ship owner, and owning ships is your business, that’s one thing, but if you’re an investor, buying ships is a very bad way to take a view on dry bulk shipping,” asserted Kartsonas.

Investing option 2: Buying shipping stocks

By far the most popular way to bet on dry bulk freight rates is to buy U.S.-listed equities of bulk shipping owners. As of today, the top pure dry bulk stocks measured in terms of market capitalization are Star Bulk (NASDAQ: SBLK), Golden Ocean (NASDAQ: GOGL), Scorpio Bulkers (NYSE: SALT), Genco Shipping (NYSE: GNK), Eagle Bulk (NASDAQ: EGLE), Diana Shipping (NYSE: DSX) and Safe Bulkers (NYSE: SB).

Although these stocks are up recently, their track record over the past decade has been largely abysmal, and they have generally traded at steep discounts to their net asset value (NAV), which is defined for these companies as the market-adjusted value of the fleet plus other assets including cash, minus debt and other liabilities.

These stocks have often not moved in the same direction of the freight rates earned by their fleets. According to Kartsonas, “The price of a shipping stock is related to things other than [company] fundamentals, including the broader equity market. You can see shipping stocks go down even if rates go higher, because if the stock market drops, the shipping stock is going to drop. A lot of investors have been burned by shipping stocks over the last several years.”

There are also substantial transaction costs associated with buying and selling shipping shares, due to the wide spreads between the ‘bid’ and ‘ask’ price, and their low trading volumes, which make it difficult for larger institutional investors in particular to move in and out of positions without moving the stock price and cutting into trading profits.

Investing option 3: Buying freight futures

A complicated, expensive and specialized option for investing in dry bulk freight rates is to buy forward freight agreements (FFAs) that settle against indices overseen by the Baltic Exchange.

The most famous index is the Baltic Dry Index (BDI). The BDI is derived from a mix of dry bulk time-charter indices that have FFAs of various maturities sold against them. FFAs are bought and sold by financial investors, commodity shippers, traders and ship owners (the latter use them as either hedges or for speculation).

“The problem with freight futures is that it’s an over-the-counter market that is very private in terms of how it trades,” said Kartsonas. “Most people don’t have a futures account,” he added, noting that “a lot of people have tried to figure out how they can open this up to the broader market.”

Investment option 4: An ETF that owns FFAs

The fourth and newest option for investing in dry bulk freight is via an ETF, BDRY, that invests in a mix of FFAs tracking rates in the Capesize, Panamax (65,000-90,000 DWT) and Supramax (45,000-60,000 DWT) bulker categories.

The value of these FFAs, recalculated daily, is the fund’s NAV. The value at which BDRY trades on the NYSE is at a small discount or premium to the NAV, but unlike with bulk shipping stocks, it cannot diverge significantly from NAV for an extended period.

“Any ETF has to follow the performance of the underlying asset. It is a fund that holds something,” explained Kartsonas. “If any ETF trades well above or below NAV, there is a natural arbitrage between buying the ETF and selling the underlying assets, or the other way around. In the case of BDRY, if it was trading below NAV, you’d buy the ETF and sell the FFAs. If it was above NAV, you’d buy the FFAs and sell the ETF. There are trading houses that do this and arbitrage [the spreads away] because it’s free money. That’s why an ETF will never diverge significantly from NAV.”

BDRY is not designed to exactly replicate the moves of the BDI, but it does mimic the trends. “You can’t invest in the BDI, but what you can do is use freight futures that settle against the rates the BDI tracks, so it’s one step removed,” said Kartsonas, who claimed that BDRY “is the closest you can get to trading the BDI – the correlations are pretty high. Not 100 percent, but close enough.”

Retail investors can trade the BDRY ETF as they would a stock, on etrade.com or any other platform, and the bid-ask spread (the transaction cost) is comparable to buying and selling dry bulk equities.

Larger, generally institutional investors have an option with an ETF like BDRY that dramatically reduces transaction costs.

Because BDRY is an open-end fund, an investor’s broker can go to a large bank, an authorized participant in the ETF market, and a certain number of shares can be ‘created’ for the investor at a price very close to NAV. When the investor wants to sell, the ETF redeems the shares, again at close to NAV. The minimum size block for creation or redemption of BDRY is 25,000 shares, which at the price on July 16, equates to an investment of $414,250.

Kartsonas said that savings on transaction costs using the creation option are “monumental” versus the costs of investing in shipping stocks, FFAs or physical ships.

“The great advantage of an ETF like BDRY is that if you want to invest a relatively large amount of money, you can create new shares and if you want to sell, the shares are redeemed, which provides a very big liquidity pool,” he said. “With shipping stocks, you have to find a seller to buy the shares.”

Asked by FreightWaves how much of BDRY’s buying and selling activity was retail versus institutional, he pointed out that he has no way of knowing because trades are anonymous, but “given the size of the creation and redemption trades, it is somebody who has a large allocation, who is potentially institutional,” and given the split between regular trading and block trading, he said, “my guess is that it’s probably around 75 percent retail and 25 percent institutional.”

Volatility ahead

A key argument by Kartsonas is that using an ETF to bet on dry bulk freight “is the best way for someone who has done their homework on dry bulk and wants to invest in their views, whether long or short, in a six-month trade.” Using shipping stocks to make a bet for such a short time frame is very problematic due to transaction costs and non-fundamental factors that sway equity pricing.

This relatively short time frame is important because dry bulk freight rates have generally been bumping along the bottom for the last decade, but have made big percentage moves off those lows over brief periods. “Over the last year, there were several opportunities when freight rates and freight futures rose 30, 40 or 50 percent, and then dropped 30, 40 or 50 percent. Not a lot of other industries see that kind of volatility,” said Kartsonas.

He further predicted that dry bulk market volatility is about to escalate, thanks to the IMO 2020 rule, which will limit marine fuel sulfur content and emissions to 0.5 percent as of January 1, 2020, unless a ship has an emission ‘scrubber’ installed on its stack.

“I
specc
20.07.2019 kl 17:49 2233

BULK kan likevel skuffe denne gangen også.
eriksu2
22.07.2019 kl 10:13 1777

3 stk Tc idag for ca 15 år gamle skip i underkant av 20000 for 9-11 mnd. Dette må jo vise at ratene er forventet høye framover, blir spennende på q2 gogl å se om de har sluttet noen tc fremover og til hvilken kurs
Kbkristi
22.07.2019 kl 10:57 1634

Kina-cape hopper 3,18% idag. Friskt :)
kakarlss
22.07.2019 kl 12:10 1404

Capsize +0,6% i dag
Bassefix
22.07.2019 kl 13:40 1128

Freight futures am update
Capesize flat
Panamax up ~3%
#shipping #drybulk $BDRY

Innlegget er slettet av Sector
Sector
22.07.2019 kl 14:13 1011

BULK:BALTIC DRY-INDEKSEN +1,0% TIL 2.191 POENG

Oslo (TDN Direkt): Baltic Dry-indeksen er opp 1,0 prosent til 2.191 poeng, ifølge The Baltic Exchange mandag.

Baltic Dry +1,0% Capesize +0,6% Panamax +1,4% Handysize +1,1% Supramax +1,9%


Rød indeks imorgen, eller er det bare en slapp mandag?
børst
05.08.2019 kl 09:10 288

Krakker totalt i dag.