På tide å kjøpe Bank Norwegian?


Poster en lengre analyse av Banken med kursmål 105 - på tide å kjøpe??

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Bank Norwegian - Political risk to decrease in Norway, despite the NFSA seemingly having trouble to admit victory
Conclusion
Based on new data we estimate that the growth in the Norwegian unsecured consumer credit market was 0.8% in Q1 19 (q/q), which annualized is 3.2% and well below the 5.6% (annualized) growth in total household credit.

Thus, the macroprudential tightening towards the consumer credit sector in Norway has been successful and should materially lower the risk of further action from the Government. This is good news for Bank Norwegian (Buy).

The remaining “regulatory” risks are now the implementation of the debt register (expected somewhere between June and late 2019) and the Government’s review of the debt collection law (review expected by 1st of January 2020):

The debt register could affect demand and, more severally, reveal large cross holdings of consumer credits (e.g. people having loans in several banks and, thereby, have a higher debt burden than individual banks assumed). This would affect the probability of default (PD) on the back-book (risk on new volumes should theoretically be easier to control).

A change in the debt collection law could increase loss-given-default (LGD), as e.g. it could become less attractive to purchase defaulted debt.

For more information on our view on Bank Norwegian’s credit quality please check our reports on the name (in short: we believe risk is under control).

Interestingly, we note that the Norwegian Supervisory Authority (NFSA) focused extensively on the “still very high” unsecured consumer credit growth and this resulted in very negative coverage (for the sector) in the news media. What the NFSA neglected to mention is that the market growth has been below general household credit growth now for two consecutive quarter (as a result of the macroprudential tightening), but we suspect it fit their agenda better to focus on year-on-year growth and the potential (emphasis on ‘potential’) risk to financial stability.

Nonetheless, it is just a matter of time before the year-on-year growth rates of consumer credits will be lower than that of the general household credit growth (in our opinion) and then the political risk overhang in Norway should subside for the sector. For the niche banks that have strong enough market positions to survive the already tougher operating environment, lower political risk should lower the risk premium (resulting in higher multiples).

The facts
Yesterday, the Norwegian Financial Supervisory Authority (NFSA) released the market statistic for the Norwegian unsecured consumer credit market, which showed a 7.4% growth rate year-deon-year in Q1 19. However, the market statistic is based on a sample approach and the NFSA had changed their sample from the Q4 18 report, which complicated the extraction of q/q growth rates somewhat. In the table below, we show our calculation of the Q1 19 quarterly growth rate. The only assumption is that the new addition(s) (unknown name) in the Q1 19 report has grown roughly in line with the market, since Q1 18.

Adjusted unsecured consumer credit growth rates (Norway):
Unsecured consumer credit Q4 17 Q1 18 Q2 18 Q3 18 Q4 18 Q1 19

Volume from old reports (NOKbn) 102.1 105.6 108.4 111.3 112.6
Volume from report yesterday (NOKbn) 108.6 116.6
Difference 2.9
Reported y/y growth 13.2 % 11.4 % 11.2 % 10.5 % 10.0 % 7.4 %
Implied q/q growth (on old numbers) 3.4 % 2.6 % 2.7 % 1.1 % ?
Imputed sample adjustment (NOKbn) 113.5
Q1 18 NOK 105.6bn * (1+7.4%)
Adjusted volume (NOKbn) 102.1 105.6 108.4 111.3 112.6 113.5
Growth q/q 3.4 % 2.6 % 2.7 % 1.1 % 0.8 %
Unsecured credit growth (ann.) 13.7 % 10.5 % 10.7 % 4.5 % 3.2 %
Household credit growth (y/y) 6.0 % 5.9 % 5.8 % 5.5 % 5.6 %

Sources: NFSA, SSB, Danske Bank Equity Research estimates

jeg ser på dette som slik,først kommer "panikken",så kommer justeringen,deretter normalen.


stay long,og dette vil bli bra butikk og utbyttene vil bli meget gode å få i tiden fremover.


;)
Matmons
11.06.2019 kl 10:40 839

Ser ut som det er for tidlig å kjøpe denne enda
Nedturen fortsetter enn så lenge
Matmons
12.06.2019 kl 13:21 693

Ny bunn notering for året
Har du solgt noe , eller sitter du like tungt inne ?

sitter fortsatt ;)


kan nevne at det er KOMP jeg sitter i.


ja,jeg tror på et annet vekstreigme for forbruksbanker,-men ingen krise,ikke hvis en har 10 - 15 års investeringshorisont.



det å hoppe inn og ut av aksjer er en arbeidsoppgave jeg har gått ifra,-diversifisering innen forskjellige sektorer er min strategi,og funker bra,-til tross for uro til tider.
Redigert 12.06.2019 kl 14:05 Du må logge inn for å svare
Matmons
12.06.2019 kl 14:52 653

Er det gitt signal om utbytte i Komp ?


Det er liten omsetning her, men ingen til å ta imot når det er slike dager eller tider
Ser jo stygg ut nå både denne og også de andre forbruks bankene
Redigert 12.06.2019 kl 14:55 Du må logge inn for å svare

ingen utbyttebetaling fra KOMP slik situasjonen er idag,-men om noen år på sikt,så kan det så absolutt bli en utbyttekandidat,-men da sikter jeg til etter/rundt 2025-tallet et sted.

de trenger all den kapitalen de nå sitter på fremover for å komme seg styrket ut av denne justeringen for de regulatoriske inngrepene de nå står forran.
Matmons
13.06.2019 kl 15:10 474

Ikke mye lyspunkt her i alle fall
Børsen er omtrent flat
Denne fortsetter å dundre ned
Vi trenger i sannhet noen nye impulser
En styreformann som kunne dratt denne opp hadde vi trengt
Han som er der nå er rett og slett ikke brukbar
Matmons
18.06.2019 kl 14:20 199

Reprise på det de sa i Februar