LNG SECTOR REPORT

Volf
29.05.2019 kl 08:57 640

LNG SECTOR REPORT India/China near full regas capacity We have cut our LNG rates as two out of the top three importers are set to reach full regas utilisation, resulting in lower tonne-mile and low gas prices. We forecast rates to double by Q4 2019, and utilisation to peak in 2020 ahead of a decline in utilisation until 2022.
We have cut our 2019–2021 LNGC 160k TFDE sailed-in rate forecast by 20%. We now forecast 2019 sailed-in rates of USD44k/day (USD54k/day), USD62k/day in 2020 (USD73k/day), USD54k/day in 2021 (USD74k/day), and USD42k/day in 2022 (new). Headline rates have to rise by USD10k/day each month to reach forecast. Spot market utilisation in 2018 was 51%, with headline rates of USD87k/day and sailed-in rates of USD44k/day. For 2019, we forecast a headline rate of USD74k/day and, with a 60% spot market utilisation assumption, sailed-in rates of USD44k/day (unchanged YOY). YTD headline spot rates are USD50k/day, hence rates have to rise USD10k/day each month for the rest of the year to reach our full-year forecast, for rates to more than double by year-end to reach USD120k/day in December. Utilisation set to peak in 2020e before volume decline and swelling orderbook. We have cut 2019e LNG utilisation to 80% (83%), 2020e to 79% (83%), and 2021e to 77% (79%). We have made marginal changes to 2019–2020e fleet growth, but now expect 9.7% growth in 2021 (6.6%). We have cut 2019e LNG volume growth to 11% (14%) and 2019e tonne-miles to 14% (18%), 10% for 2020e (12%), and 7% in 2021e (unch.). LNG prices could stay low as China and India set to reach full regas utilisation. China, Korea, and India had the largest growth in LNG imports in 2018, accounting for 95% of global LNG demand growth, but in 2019–2020e China is facing near-full capacity utilisation on import regas capacity (China surpassed 100% in November 2018 for the first time in peak demand season). We forecast that India is likely to reach 92% capacity utilisation on its regas capacity in 2019, from 88% in 2018 and 55% in 2017, which leads us to believe the largest-ever growth in new liquefaction volumes coming to the market in a single year has to be cleared on low price-boosting switching to LNG, as we saw in Q1. This would also be negative for sailing distances, as Europe would increase its import share of volumes. European LNG imports more than doubled in Q1 2019 YOY. US–China trade war slows growth in average sailing distance… We forecast the average laden sailing distance to rise by 2% YOY in 2019, to 4,385 nautical miles, from 4,278 nautical miles in 2018, a 6% YOY increase over 2017’s 4,030 nautical miles. The lower growth in sailing distance could be explained by what we now forecast as a 4% YOY decline in the average US export sailing distances, compared to a 9% YOY increase in 2018: US–China exports are down by 60% YOY since the inception of the trade war in June 2018 and Europe is now taking an even larger share of US exports. We have made the following changes to our target prices. FLEX LNG, BUY, TP NOK138 (162); Gaslog, BUY, TP USD19 (24); Golar LNG, BUY, TP USD34 (42); Höegh LNG Holdings, BUY, TP NOK66 (unchanged); Höegh LNG Partners, HOLD, TP USD19.1 (unchanged); and Golar LNG Partners, HOLD, TP USD10.9 (13.5).
Varsom
29.05.2019 kl 20:25 349

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Triton
29.05.2019 kl 15:07 448

Volf skrev Nei
Total kollaps i Flex Idag, her må ledelsen dra en joker opp på Fredag eller er jeg redd den går under hundre lappen.