A tripling of LNG output likely to hit the shipping market


A predicted tripling of sanctions for global LNG projects in 2019 threatens to disrupt future shipping logistics as demand for the gas enters a more volatile phase because of a rapid increase in supply.

This is the result of a likely record year for final investment decisions (FIDs) that will ultimately deliver more than 60M tonnes of LNG per year (mta), nearly three times the 21 mta sanctioned in 2018, as the research director for Wood Mackenzie Giles Farrer forecasts. Inevitably, increased availability of LNG will influence where tankers deliver their loads.

But Wood Mackenzie also predicts shorter-term volatility in the vagaries of the weather that could affect shipping movements – “a mild end to [the 2019] winter could send more LNG into Europe and drive prices down further,” he said.

The energy consultant’s predictions come at a time of concern over the availability of LNG tankers to handle the huge extra output, particularly in the spot market because most of the fleet are locked into exclusive long-term charters. In a mid-2018 study, the International Energy Agency highlighted a possible shortfall in vessels as a threat to the security of supply, particularly in more remote regions.

The dearth of available LNG carriers is reflected in rocketing spot charter rates. In November, they shot to US$190,000 a day, five times higher than in early May.

Overall though, it appears the tanker fleet will have to adjust to changes in demand in the medium-term future. “Asian LNG demand growth will not keep pace with LNG supply and Europe – northwest Europe in particular – will have to absorb the surplus, especially during the summer,” he predicted in a release this week. “But Europe needs additional imports and flexibility, given its increased reliance on maxed-out Russian and Norwegian imports.”

It is therefore likely, he added, “there would be more LNG imports than required. And that in turn would provide competition to pipe imports and put pressure on prices,” he said. However Mr Farrer does not see the level of oversupply in 2019 that others fear.

A record number of LNG projects, as measured by volume, are due to get the green light. Wood Mackenzie sees the frontrunners in the race to hit FID in 2019 as the giant US$27Bn Arctic LNG-2 project in Russia, at least one project in Mozambique and three in America. Of the latter, Wood Mackenzie identifies three major operations as top picks – Golden Pass, Calcasieu Pass and Sabine Pass Train 6.

But that is not all. There are other projects in the pipeline in America as well as in Qatar, Papua New Guinea, Australia and Nigeria, all aiming for FID in 2019.

Wood Mackenzie sees other global influences that would inevitably determine the course of the growing LNG shipping network. “A recession would bring gas/LNG demand and oil prices down, delay FIDs and push the global LNG market back a few years,” said Mr Farrer. “But there could be a worse scenario for the gas market: a major economic downturn happening in 2020 or 2021, just after 60-100 mta of LNG has taken FID. That would wipe out our forecast price recovery post-2020 and make our forecast that prices soften a little around 2025 look a lot worse.”

Chinese demand is also less certain than it was in 2018, particularly if Beijing rethinks its headlong switch from coal to gas. In the last two years demand for LNG hovered between 40-45% growth, but that could fall to about 20%. However, as Wood Mackenzie pointed out, even if that happened China would remain by far the largest customer for LNG in the global market.

https://www.lngworldshipping.com/news/view,a-tripling-of-lng-output-likely-to-hit-the-shipping-market_56372.htm
delta
07.03.2019 kl 14:52 3493

Takk! Av 103 nybygg planlagt levert 2019-2021 er halvparten hver hhv. "committed" og "open". Så det virker som en betydlig andel er bestilt på "spekulasjon", Det blir vel kontraktsmuligheter for mange av dem etterhvert.
Redigert 07.03.2019 kl 14:53 Du må logge inn for å svare
RSinvest
14.03.2019 kl 11:52 3313

Shipping Companies Banking on Gas Carriers as LNG Demand Grows
Operators expect bigger profits as rising global trade in liquefied natural gas, boosted by demand from Asia, fuels a booming order book for the specialized tankers.

A raft of U.S. natural gas projects coming online in the next few years are likely to boost the global fleet of seagoing tankers carrying the product by up to a third, as shipping operators jarred by sharp swings in oil markets rush to take advantage of a big new stream of business.

At around $175 million each, vessels outfitted for liquefied natural gas can cost up to four times more than other ship types. But top shipowners say they could be the vehicle for most profitable trade in shipping since crude oil tankers powered global maritime fortunes in the 1960s.

LNG business has long been a small piece of the global tanker market, but trade in natural gas is on a sharp upswing as energy producers look for cleaner sources of power to replace oil and coal. Demand has grown at a sharp rate in Asia, in particular, and output has soared in the U.S. as improved hydraulic fracturing technology has made shale drilling for both oil and gas more cost effective, which has helped reshape global energy markets.

We are moving into an era where fossil fuels will be reduced in the energy mixture, and LNG will be used extensively in the transitional period where more clean forms of energy can be developed,” said shipowner George Prokopiou. “If you are in shipping, you can’t ignore LNG.”

Mr. Prokopiou is chairman of Dynagas LNG Partners LP, which has five icebreaking LNG carriers on long-term contracts to move gas from the Yamal LNG project in the Russian arctic. He operates more than 100 ships, including crude oil supertankers and dry bulk carriers, under different companies.

The LNG market is powered by growing demand from Japan, China, India and Southeast Asia that has helped triple seaborne LNG cargoes since 2000 to 308 million metric tons last year, according to Bloomberg New Energy Finance. World-wide capacity for another 170 million metric tons is expected to be added by 2030, if planned projects are completed.

Much of the anticipated growth is driven by new LNG projects in Texas, Louisiana, Maryland and Georgia that will come online by 2022. The U.S. Energy Information Administration projects the U.S. will become the No. 3 LNG exporter in the world, behind Australia and Qatar, by the end of this year.

By then, the agency says, U.S. LNG export capacity will reach 8.9 billion cubic feet a day, more than double the current capacity of 3.6 billion cubic feet.

“The energy costs in the U.S. are half of those in Europe and a third compared to the Far East,” Mr. Prokopiou said. “The financial benefits the U.S. has are tremendous, and more ships will be needed to move gas to export markets.”

Maritime operators and a beleaguered shipbuilding sector buffeted by sharp swings in various shipping markets in recent years are as anxious as the shale drillers to tap into the market.

There are now about 520 tankers capable of carrying LNG across oceans, according to David Bull, an analyst at London-based Maritime Strategies International. He expects the fleet to grow by about 28% by 2020, roughly in line with the growth in production.

South Korea’s Hyundai Heavy Industries Co. and Daewoo Shipbuilding & Marine Engineering Co. , which are completing a merger agreed to last month, will be the biggest beneficiaries, as they will control 52% of existing orders with a combined order book worth $31.4 billion. Executives from both yards say LNG transport is the single bright point in an otherwise depressed shipbuilding industry.

LNG tankers cost more than oil tankers—the largest crude supertankers sell new for about $95 million—because of the technology needed to carry and control natural gas on long voyages. The gas is chilled to be condensed and then transported as liquid. Special alloys are needed for the ship’s tanks to keep the temperature at -165 degrees Celsius (-265 Fahrenheit) so the gas doesn’t evaporate.

Along with 101 ships on order, the total fleet of existing and ordered LNG tankers has a combined value of nearly $50 billion, according to marine data provider VesselsValue Ltd.

For the buyers, those orders carry risks since they target speculative business rather than existing demand.

Major producers like Houston-based Cheniere Energy Partners LP prefer to limit their exposure to volatile rate changes with long-term contracts called time charters that can stretch up to seven years. But experts expect many of the new ships to head into the short-term spot market as operators look to get the most revenue out of their expensive new vessels.

“In the past, owners ordered LNG tankers based on long-term contracts,” said Basil Karatzas, chief executive of New-York-based Karatzas Marine Advisors & Co. “Now, many shipowners prefer to trade their LNG tankers on the spot market as they see profits from the upside potential. This is unprecedented, because the ships involved are very expensive.”

Still, owners expect demand to run ahead of shipping capacity until at least 2024, paving the way for five years of healthy freight rates.

“With the new U.S. LNG plants, quite a few vessels will be required fairly quickly as there is no spare capacity out there,” Mr. Bull said. “The shift from coal and oil for power generation and heating will continue to propel Asian demand and barring a major crisis, not much can go wrong in gas trade over the next years. It’s good news for LNG vessel operators.”
RSinvest
17.03.2019 kl 11:16 3093

GAC handles milestone LNG carrier call in India

GAC has handled the first tanker to berth at the newly constructed Liquefied Natural Gas (LNG) terminal in Kamarajar Port, Ennore, near the Indian city of Chennai. The Marshall Islands-flagged LNG carrier, LNG Golar Snow, was carrying the first consignment of 78,037m³ of LNG to enable the commissioning of the terminal.

Agency operations were overseen by Captain Srinivasan Sethumadhavan, General Manager of Shipping Services at GAC’s Chennai Office, who is optimistic about the opportunities that the new LNG terminal will generate.

“The opening of the first LNG terminal on the east coast of India is likely to change trade dynamics and drive industrial growth in this area,” he says. “Overall, the outlook for the Indian LNG market is promising.”

Currently, India imports around 45% of its total natural gas consumption. The government has invested heavily in the construction of LNG terminals and pipelines in a bid to transform the country into a gas-based economy. “This buoyant local market is expected to give rise to an increase in the number of tanker calls,” adds Sethumadhavan. “With our 26 offices serving all ports in India, GAC is ready to attend to the needs of LNG tankers.”

https://www.themaritimestandard.com/gac-handles-milestone-lng-carrier-call-in-india/
Ka'l
17.03.2019 kl 21:11 2906

Ja, dette er jo flott. Så vi kan kanskje forvente kursdobling for FLNG i løpet av året?
K
RSinvest
17.03.2019 kl 22:32 2849

Alltid flott med upramp av import. India må ta grep om de i hele tatt bryr seg om sine innbyggere. Som nevnt er de fleste av verdens 10 mest forurensende byer i India. Folk dør som følger av luftkvaliteten.
Når det gjelder kursdobling så er ikke dette noe en kan spå med sikkerhet, men om man får en repeat av fjorårets rater så kan Flex gå en del.
I år vil, slik det ser ut nå, det være 6 LNGC'er i spot markedet i motsetning til 2. Skader heller ikke om vi ser skibsverdiene fortsette nordover som ventet.

Problemet er at India ikke har terminaler/infrastruktur til å motta ubegrenset med gass. Dette vil ta tid å bygge ut.
RSinvest
17.03.2019 kl 22:39 2844

Det stemmer og ser ikke på India som en av driverne i nærmeste fremtid. Derimot positivt at de endelig tar noen grep.
Empire
17.03.2019 kl 23:06 2817

India vil iløpet av 2019 ha en terminal kapasitet på ca. 42M tonn, opp fra ca. 35M tonn 2018. Etterspørselen er forventet å vokse med ca 10% og vil dermed ende på grove 25m tonn. Terminal utilisation er dermed på grove 60%, ikke et veldig høyt tall.

Som nevnt er det innenlandsk transport som er problemet for India og det trengs mer rør for å få gassen rundt. Og det bygges, men det tar noe mer tid i India, sammenlignet med Kina.
Redigert 17.03.2019 kl 23:08 Du må logge inn for å svare
RSinvest
19.03.2019 kl 15:32 2642

Seoul to slash LNG import fee, making its taxes cheaper than coal

The South Korean government will sharply ease fees for importing liquefied natural gas (LNG) in addition to the sales tax cut, making its taxes cheaper than coal to spur the migration to cleaner fuel in an effort to fight the worsening air pollution.

The Ministry of Trade, Industry, and Energy proposed to axe the surcharge on LNG imports to fuel power generators from the current 24.2 won ($0.02) to 3.8 won per kilogram. The revised tax code was approved by the state council and would go into effect on Apr. 1.

The move is expected to boost the use of LNG, which had so far been levied with heavier taxes than fossil fuel.

Due to its low emissions, LNG’s environmental costs are half those of bituminous coal. But its total tax levies, including special consumption tax, import surcharge and tariffs, had been 91.4 won, more than double the 36 won of bituminous coal.

The cut in LNG’s import surcharge on top of the eased special tax in July last year would bring the total levy of LNG to 23 won from the previous 91.4 won, while that of thermal coal would go up to 46 won from 36 won in line with its pollutant emissions.

The government estimated the new taxes to help reduce an annual 427 tons of ultrafine particulate matter, tiny dust particles less than 2.5 micrometers in diameter that are absorbed directly into the blood stream and are known to pose serious health risks.

LNG used in cogeneration plants, or combined heat and power plants, would enjoy full tax reimbursement as they operate at significantly higher energy efficiency, about 30 percentage points higher than traditional power plants. Personal and collective energy operators as well as fuel cell generation plants would be eligible for the tax refunds, with those of installed capacity of less than 100 megawatts to see tax cuts of 6.9 percent from Apr. 1.

Korea currently relies 40 percent of its electricity supply on coal. LNG accounts for less than 20 percent. Nuclear reactors make up 30 percent and renewable sources, like solar, wind and fuel cell, about 10 percent.

https://pulsenews.co.kr/view.php?year=2019&no=164805
RSinvest
19.03.2019 kl 16:15 2588

RSI<50
Redigert da vi ble datafucked på slutten av dagen.
Redigert 19.03.2019 kl 16:47 Du må logge inn for å svare
Ka'l
19.03.2019 kl 16:33 2573

Alt dette ser jo veldig bra ut og da er det vel bare å akkumulere FLNG videre?
K
RSinvest
19.03.2019 kl 16:35 2578

Det får være opp til hver og en, men gode nyheter ja.
RSinvest
21.03.2019 kl 14:10 2434

Spot Market (USD/Day) This week Change
East of Suez 155-165 000 cbm $25,000 $0
West of Suez 155-165 000 cbm $35,000 -$4,000
1 Year T/C 155-160 000 cbm $73,000 $0
RSinvest
22.03.2019 kl 08:59 2316

Hamilton, Bermuda
March 22, 2019

Flex LNG LTD (Flex LNG or the Company - OSE:FLNG) today announce that it has
entered into a time-charter agreement with an international energy major (the
"Charterer"). The time charter period is firm for a period of 12 months
commencing end of first quarter 2019. The Charterer also has certain extension
options. The time charter rate is variable as a function of the overall market
conditions.

Øystein M. Kalleklev, Chief Executive Officer, commented:
"We are pleased to announce a prompt time-charter contract with a super major
for one of our vessels. This contract provides full utilization with a first
class charterer as well as exposure to the development of freight rates for
large LNG carriers which we have a positive view on."

For further information, please contact:
Øystein M. Kalleklev,
Chief Executive Officer
Flex LNG Management AS
Telephone: +47 23 11 40 00
E-Mail: IR@flexlng.com
really
22.03.2019 kl 11:10 2247

Interessant at de har fått med en markedsklausul. 1 års raten ligger på 73 000 nå, men det bør være et påslag for MEGI. Med tillegg om ratene går opp ser dette ut som en veldig grei avtale.

Burde gi en samlet cash flow etter finansielle kostnader på 14 mill $, forutsatt rater på 80 000$. Nesten så flex like så godt kunne ha leid ut hele flåten på 1 års TC. Hadde ihvertfall gitt god avkastning for investorer som kjøper seg inn på dagens kurs. Skal bli interessant å følge spotratene fremover. Skal ikke mye til før vi er tilbake på 16 kr. Tipper 14 kr innen mai forutsatt løsning på handelskonflikt
Redigert 22.03.2019 kl 13:11 Du må logge inn for å svare
RSinvest
22.03.2019 kl 13:12 2184

Virker som de kjører litt safe. Fornuftig og grei deal spør du meg. Noen som husker hvilken deal de hadde med Uniper og Total? Disse går vel ut nå ila. Q1 om jeg ikke husker feil.
Hadde ikke kjørt alle på TC da de forventer at spot havner langt over mot høsten igjen.

Stemmer nok det. De har i hvertfall 2 skip i spot. Endavour er på kontrakt.

Bredt børsfall i dag blant amerikanske lng fraktselskaper på resesjonsfrykt. Gaslog, Golar, Teekay er ned omtrent 4 %. Dynagas ned 9%. Dette er aksjer som er på ATL allerede. Flex og Høegh holder seg derimot sterk på blodrød børs.
Redigert 22.03.2019 kl 19:02 Du må logge inn for å svare

Spørsmålet er hva som skjer med shipping-ratene når markedet etter hvert svømmer over av rimelig gass og etterspørselen ikke vokser.

https://www.lngindustry.com/liquid-natural-gas/22032019/asian-lng-prices-now-below-us500/

I motsetning til Flex er Gaslog sikret gode inntekter gjennom sine lange avtaler, mens Golar etter hvert vil ha like store inntekter fra andre virksomheter enn frakt.
22.03.2019 kl 19:22 2121

Det er ikke lenge før FLEX CONSTELLATION er i fart eller.
Varsom
22.03.2019 kl 19:26 2113

Denne kan fort dette ned på midten av 10 tallet tapogvinn, men tror ikke du skal håpe på så mye lavere enn det. Så snart på tide å kjøpe seg inn nå! Vi alle veit at denne skal høyt opp mot høsten osv!

Mye ny kapasitet som er online 2019 ja.. og mulig vi ser 10 kr etterhvert også. Litt dyr sammenlignet med andre Lng selskaper som golar, men burde ikke være noen grunner for mere nedgang fremover nå. Myrseth har jo aksjen som en av sine favoritter og han pleier jo som regel å treffe ganske bra. Sissner blant annet har jo mye i Golar Lng, som i motsetning til flex driver med FLNG og FSRUer, men mange lng fraktskip der også.
Redigert 22.03.2019 kl 19:49 Du må logge inn for å svare

Innlegget er slettet av the-inside-man

Helt greit. Altså har seff tro på denne, men fins jo andre aksjer på ose også :). Spørs vel hvordan du ser det. Golar er også p/b 0.9. Har en del aksjer i flex nå, og skal kjøpe mer etterhvert. Med andre ord jeg har tro på denne aksjen og golar :) Har litt i preferanse aksjer i Dynagas også(som falt mye i dag), men anbefaler ikke å gå inn der for de har problemer å refinansiere noe gjeld som forfaller i oktober. Det skal ikke flex heldigvis :D Hva tror du flex er verdt i dag? Jeg tenker 13-15 kroner(med det vi vet i dag, og dagens rater og fremtidsutsikter tatt til hensyn) men sentimentet for lng aksjer om dagen er jo fryktlig dårlig. Trengs noen kursdrivende nyheter eller forbedringer i rater nå hvis denne skal opp(er vel nevnt en 1 million ganger allerede på forumet). Får satse på at Trump får til en god avtale med Kina.
Redigert 22.03.2019 kl 21:37 Du må logge inn for å svare
22.03.2019 kl 22:09 2071

Av BJØRN SEGROV



Kontrakten er strukturert som en timecharter-avtale med en rate som skal følge utviklingen i markedet, der rederiet venter at inntjeningen vil stramme seg til i tiden som kommer.

Ellers er detaljene om avtalen få, og raten oppgis heller ikke.

– Kontrakten er det beste av to verdener for oss, sier Flex-sjefen Øystein M. Kalleklev til Finansavisen.

– Den gir oss full beskjeftigelse med en førsteklasses befrakter pluss eksponering til det underliggende fraktmarkedet.

Ønsket risiko

– Vi er positive til utsiktene for LNG-frakt og foretrekker en variabel rate. Ettersom vi er godt kapitalisert er dette en risiko vi ønsker og har råd til å ta, sier han.

Ifølge TradeWinds skal en gasstanker eid av Haugesund-rederiet Knutsen OAS ha blitt viderebefraktet i ett år for 85.000 dollar dagen.

– Betyr avtalen at raten er høyere enn for Knutsen-skipet?

– Det vil tiden vise. Vi har en variabel kontrakt som gir oss inntekter avhengig av markedsratene, men jeg tror det vil vise seg at raten er høyere enn hva TradeWinds rapporter når vi gjør opp sluttregningen neste år, sier Flex-sjefen.

Gode utsikter

– Hvorfor oppgir dere ikke hvem som er leietager?

– Befrakter har ikke ønsket at vi opplyser dette, men listen er ikke så lang med tanke på at dette er en av de store aktørene i bransjen. Dette er folk vi vil gjøre mer forretning med, sier Kalleklev.

Han viser til at aktiviteten i fraktmarkedet for flytende naturgass, LNG, økte fra midten av februar.

– Normalt vil ratene i shipping begynne å gå når utnyttelsesgraden når 80-85 prosent. Vi tror vi har kommet til det nivået og følgelig ønsker vi variabel i motsetning til fast rate.

– Markedet har normalt bunnet ut i april. Vi er snart der, men sjelden har utsiktene vært bedre enn nå, sier Kalleklev.

På Oslo Børs var Flex LNG-aksjen marginalt opp fredag. Hittil i år har John Fredriksens LNG-rederi falt 8,5 prosent til 113 kroner etter at ti aksjer ble slått sammen til en.
RSinvest
24.03.2019 kl 13:41 1892

Fins flere aksjer på OSE, det er klart, men FLNG er vel den mest åpenbare vinneren av en handelsavtale uten å ha så kraftig nedside om avtalen skulle utebli.
Mye taler for at denne avtalen blir signert. Både Xi og Trump er oppegående nok, forhåpentligvis, til å se at verden trenger denne handelen for å holde hjulene i gang. Bare de klarer å være objektive nok og jobbe mot et felles mål heller enn å passe på sin egen stolthet. Om en avtale ikke signeres vil begge tape, sammen med verdensøkonomien. Ser flere saker om den nye "big short" og bla bla. Dette tror jeg ikke på. Konsensus er at det kommer en avtale og oddsen er imot et slikt shortcase.
Hva er den verdt i dag.. sikkert ikke så langt over der vi er nå. Dette er ikke det jeg vurderer. Fremtidig kurs på denne er selvfølgelig ratebasert, men om man tar utgangspunkt i samme ratesnitt som i fjor så er det ikke veldig vanskelig å forestille seg en bra oppside her. Så får vi se om ledelsen klarer å slutte skipene best mulig.
Ellers delte Øystein en sak: https://www.bloomberg.com/news/videos/2019-03-22/bnef-brief-the-bottleneck-at-the-panama-canal-video


Redigert 24.03.2019 kl 13:41 Du må logge inn for å svare

Definitift. At det kommer til å bli underskudd på skip i 2019 og 2020 er ganske sikkert. (5-10 skip for mye nå, 30 mt med ny kapasitet mye fra usa, og kun 30 nye skip i 2019 ca.) Uansett handelsavtale eller ei(tenker jeg da). Aksjen kommer ihvertfall til å gå høyt hvis det skulle vise seg at kina fjerner tollen i tillegg til at de kjøper LNG fra usa for 18 milliarder dollar. Regnet litt på det å kom nå frem til 60 MT med lng forutsatt en lng pris på omkring 6 $ per mmbtu. Vet ikke om denne vil gjelde i 2019, eller 2019 og 2020. Et nytt klondyke i lng shipping er helt sikkert hvis det skulle skje.
Redigert 24.03.2019 kl 16:28 Du må logge inn for å svare
really
24.03.2019 kl 22:11 1709

Med temperamentet og ego hos hentesveisen ville jeg ikke tatt noe for gitt.
RSinvest
28.03.2019 kl 10:07 1502

Nisshin Shipping enters gas shipping with LNG carrier order at Samsung

Japanese owner Nisshin Shipping is entering the gas shipping market, having placed an order for the construction of a 174,000 cu m LNG carrier at South Korea’s Samsung Heavy Industries.

According to shipbroking sources, Nisshin Shipping will pay a price of $191.3m for the vessel with delivery scheduled in 2022.

Nisshin Shipping currently operates in the bulker and tanker market, owning a fleet of 33 bulkers and 26 tankers. The company is in the middle of massive fleet rejuvenation programme, and has a total 46 newbuildings under construction at Japanese and Chinese yards.

The promising outlook for the LNG shipping market has boosted the LNG carrier newbuilding market in the past couple of years. According to VesselsValue, a total of 101 LNG carriers have been ordered since January 2018.


RSinvest
28.03.2019 kl 10:08 1520

Nisshin Shipping enters gas shipping with LNG carrier order at Samsung

Japanese owner Nisshin Shipping is entering the gas shipping market, having placed an order for the construction of a 174,000 cu m LNG carrier at South Korea’s Samsung Heavy Industries.

According to shipbroking sources, Nisshin Shipping will pay a price of $191.3m for the vessel with delivery scheduled in 2022.

Nisshin Shipping currently operates in the bulker and tanker market, owning a fleet of 33 bulkers and 26 tankers. The company is in the middle of massive fleet rejuvenation programme, and has a total 46 newbuildings under construction at Japanese and Chinese yards.

The promising outlook for the LNG shipping market has boosted the LNG carrier newbuilding market in the past couple of years. According to VesselsValue, a total of 101 LNG carriers have been ordered since January 2018.


RSinvest
28.03.2019 kl 10:08 1525

Nisshin Shipping enters gas shipping with LNG carrier order at Samsung

Japanese owner Nisshin Shipping is entering the gas shipping market, having placed an order for the construction of a 174,000 cu m LNG carrier at South Korea’s Samsung Heavy Industries.

According to shipbroking sources, Nisshin Shipping will pay a price of $191.3m for the vessel with delivery scheduled in 2022.

Nisshin Shipping currently operates in the bulker and tanker market, owning a fleet of 33 bulkers and 26 tankers. The company is in the middle of massive fleet rejuvenation programme, and has a total 46 newbuildings under construction at Japanese and Chinese yards.

The promising outlook for the LNG shipping market has boosted the LNG carrier newbuilding market in the past couple of years. According to VesselsValue, a total of 101 LNG carriers have been ordered since January 2018.


RSinvest
28.03.2019 kl 12:38 1461

Rater uke 13:
Spot Market (USD/Day) This week Change
East of Suez 155-165 000 cbm $25,000 $0
West of Suez 155-165 000 cbm $36,000 $0
1 Year T/C 155-160 000 cbm $73,000 $2,000
RSinvest
28.03.2019 kl 12:41 1476

Endring i skibsverdier:

LNGC (MEGI) (cbm)170 000 $189 $1

men som jeg postet tidligere blir det handlet LNGC'er nord for $190
Redigert 28.03.2019 kl 12:42 Du må logge inn for å svare

Bredt børsfall blant LNG skips selskaper idag. Golar, Teekay, og Gaslog er ned forholdsvis mye. Flex ned 2.7 %. Kan være pga resesjonsfrykt.
Redigert 28.03.2019 kl 16:24 Du må logge inn for å svare
RSinvest
28.03.2019 kl 16:56 1362

Gudene vet. Opp på 20mill i går og ned på14mill i dag. Godt det ikke er omvendt.
Ellers kan Øystein rapportere at:

Pleased to announce that the $300m equity private placement equity offering which Flex LNG carried out on October 10, 2008 has just received the Deal of the Year Prize by Marine Money.

The proceeds from the equity offering was utilized to acquire five large 5th generation LNG carriers fitted with the newest slow speed two stroke propulsion system for delivery in 2020/2021 at very attractive bottom of the cycle newbuilding prices. By carrying out the transaction, Flex LNG got instant scale with a fleet of 13 vessels in total - all fifth generation vessels.

Hence, from start of 2017 to end of 2018 Flex LNG has grown its fleet from two vessels to 13 and thus becoming the leading owner of modern LNG tonnage. As we remain very optimistic and confident about the direction of the market, Flex LNG has deliberately not entered into longer term contracts for the fleet in order to be able to capture better rewards when the market have fully recovered. With the $300m equity offering in 2018, the $329m equity raised in 2017 and the existing paid in equity, Flex LNG has a very robust capitalization and is thus able to take such a view and position on the market.

The stock traded relatively well during the month subsequent to the offering with a 30 days gain of about 3.5% and a peak of NOK 160 (+12.3%) a week subsequent to the offering. However, the stock have since traded down together with the market and shipping stocks in particularly. Our main focus is executing our strategy which remain firm and we do hope investors in the deal will share the benefits when markets are turning tighter which is already underway in our view and as evidenced from recent fixture activity.

Thanks to the investment banks arranging the deal being DNB Markets, Pareto Securities, Arctic Securities, Fearnleys Securities, SEB and ABM Amro with special thanks to deal captains Dag Klaveness and Søren Clausen in DNB and Pareto respectively. You all did a great job. Not least thanks to the investors supporting the transformation and growth strategy of Flex LNG. Attached article from Marine Money which I hope editor George Weltman do not mind me sharing.

https://www.linkedin.com/pulse/deal-year-flex-lngs-300m-equity-offering-oeystein-moksheim-kalleklev/

Det hjelper ikke å produsere ubegrenset med gass når kundene foreløpig ikke finnes. Det er en utbredt oppfatning at det stadig økende gassvolumet må eksporteres, og at fraktratene dermed skal himmelhøyt. I det korte bildet virker det som om denne oppfatningen kan få et skudd for baugen.

Reuters is reporting that Vitol’s head of LNG trading, Pablo Galante Escobar, has gone on record stating that the short term prospects for LNG business are ‘bleak’. Escobar’s recent address to the FT Commodities Global Summit in Switzerland commented on the heavily oversupplied state of the market and the potential for supply shutdowns.

Oversupply leading to declines in Asian LNG spot prices has recently made Europe a top LNG export destination. As Escobar described, in his address, LNG shipments from the Middle East and Africa are not finding homes in Pakistan, Bangladesh or China. As a result, they are being redirected to Europe instead. Indeed, Reuters has reported that many Asian companies, notably South Korea’s KOGAS and China’s PetroChina, having been re-selling LNG cargoes, imported from the US and Russia, to Europe in recent months.

The latest estimates show that Asian LNG spot prices are now at a nearly three-year low (US$4.30 per million Btu). Moreover, it has been stated that prices are only approximately US$1 per million Btu above levels where supply shutdowns might be considered.

https://www.lngindustry.com/liquid-natural-gas/28032019/vitol-expecting-shutdowns-in-response-to-recent-supply-glut/
RSinvest
28.03.2019 kl 21:13 1277

Nå påvirker ikke produksjonen av gass spotprisene i frakt. De som sliter med lav pris er de som produserer gassen. Det er overflod av gass i markedet takket være USA. Sammen med WTI oljen deres produseres det for full maskin. De har gått fra importører til eksportører. Dette presser prisen av LNG ned. Kjøperne av gassen er de samme og like mange, om ikke flere med tiden. Den lave prisen stimulerer til at flere velger gass fremfor andre energikilder. Det er per nå billigere med lng enn kull om man regner energitetthet. LNG prisen er spådd å være lav frem til neste vinter. Problemet er energiforbruket for øyeblikket er lavt. Det har vært en mild vinter og om våren er markedet ikke akkurat brennhett. Ingen forskjell der. Energiforbruket er høyest om sommeren og vinteren. En faktor som har drevet spotratene ned nå i Q1 er at det er blitt levert flere LNGC'er samtidig som energiforbruket har vært i dass. Man får da en forsterket effekt.

Problemet med lave gasspriser er at FID'er kan utebli da prosjekt blir ulønnsomme. Det er heldigvis allerede vedtatt og bygget ut flere eksportterminaler i USA som er det markedet vi aller helst ønsker eksport fra. Om det kommer frem at Kina forplikter seg til å kjøpe mye gass fra USA vil tonnmilene øke drastisk sammenlignet med før. Husk.. ratene var 200k uten særlig USA-Kina frakt i fjor. Og det mot en varm vinter.

Poenget er at tilbudssiden er for stor i forhold til etterspørselssiden noe som gjenspeiles i prisen. I det korte bildet blir det neppe behov for flere LNG-skip til å frakta gassen dersom produksjonen kuttes for å få opp prisene.