A tripling of LNG output likely to hit the shipping market


A predicted tripling of sanctions for global LNG projects in 2019 threatens to disrupt future shipping logistics as demand for the gas enters a more volatile phase because of a rapid increase in supply.

This is the result of a likely record year for final investment decisions (FIDs) that will ultimately deliver more than 60M tonnes of LNG per year (mta), nearly three times the 21 mta sanctioned in 2018, as the research director for Wood Mackenzie Giles Farrer forecasts. Inevitably, increased availability of LNG will influence where tankers deliver their loads.

But Wood Mackenzie also predicts shorter-term volatility in the vagaries of the weather that could affect shipping movements – “a mild end to [the 2019] winter could send more LNG into Europe and drive prices down further,” he said.

The energy consultant’s predictions come at a time of concern over the availability of LNG tankers to handle the huge extra output, particularly in the spot market because most of the fleet are locked into exclusive long-term charters. In a mid-2018 study, the International Energy Agency highlighted a possible shortfall in vessels as a threat to the security of supply, particularly in more remote regions.

The dearth of available LNG carriers is reflected in rocketing spot charter rates. In November, they shot to US$190,000 a day, five times higher than in early May.

Overall though, it appears the tanker fleet will have to adjust to changes in demand in the medium-term future. “Asian LNG demand growth will not keep pace with LNG supply and Europe – northwest Europe in particular – will have to absorb the surplus, especially during the summer,” he predicted in a release this week. “But Europe needs additional imports and flexibility, given its increased reliance on maxed-out Russian and Norwegian imports.”

It is therefore likely, he added, “there would be more LNG imports than required. And that in turn would provide competition to pipe imports and put pressure on prices,” he said. However Mr Farrer does not see the level of oversupply in 2019 that others fear.

A record number of LNG projects, as measured by volume, are due to get the green light. Wood Mackenzie sees the frontrunners in the race to hit FID in 2019 as the giant US$27Bn Arctic LNG-2 project in Russia, at least one project in Mozambique and three in America. Of the latter, Wood Mackenzie identifies three major operations as top picks – Golden Pass, Calcasieu Pass and Sabine Pass Train 6.

But that is not all. There are other projects in the pipeline in America as well as in Qatar, Papua New Guinea, Australia and Nigeria, all aiming for FID in 2019.

Wood Mackenzie sees other global influences that would inevitably determine the course of the growing LNG shipping network. “A recession would bring gas/LNG demand and oil prices down, delay FIDs and push the global LNG market back a few years,” said Mr Farrer. “But there could be a worse scenario for the gas market: a major economic downturn happening in 2020 or 2021, just after 60-100 mta of LNG has taken FID. That would wipe out our forecast price recovery post-2020 and make our forecast that prices soften a little around 2025 look a lot worse.”

Chinese demand is also less certain than it was in 2018, particularly if Beijing rethinks its headlong switch from coal to gas. In the last two years demand for LNG hovered between 40-45% growth, but that could fall to about 20%. However, as Wood Mackenzie pointed out, even if that happened China would remain by far the largest customer for LNG in the global market.

https://www.lngworldshipping.com/news/view,a-tripling-of-lng-output-likely-to-hit-the-shipping-market_56372.htm

Underkapasitet->høye rater->investeringer->balanse->overkapasitet->lave rater->nedtur/konkurs->konsolidering->høyere rater osv...
Dette er vel den klassiske syklusen. Ingen tror vel at ATH rater varer evig. Som du sier; man får se på dette som en bekreftelse på at LNG totalvolumet skal opp som følge av at LNG øker sin relative posisjon i energimixen.

Jeg tenker at LNG-selskaper som er lønnsomme er relativt gode kjøp på en olje-skadet oslo børs og er happy med å utvikle en LNG-portefølje på disse nivåene.

Hvis kvaliteten på HO-Forumet er en indikasjon på investor-kvalitet så ligger LNG-aksjene meget godt an sammenliknet med andre aksjer i porteføljen min (Archer, DOF, NEL)
Redigert 30.01.2019 kl 22:04 Du må logge inn for å svare

Stifel Comments today on the GLOP earnings release interesting:

• LNG rates have given some back with TFDE rates at $65,000/day, down from the peak of
$200,000/day in December. While this is down, 1-year time charters are still at $85,000/day,
which is up 51% yoy. We expect rates to bottom at $50,000 before recovering in 3Q19.
• With the continued increase in liquefaction capacity, we believe that LNG prices will be more
subdued in 2019, compared to the peaks of $13/mmbtu seen in 2018. This is shrinking the
Asian arb and reducing ton-miles for LNG shipping near-term.
• With some concern over ship ordering being overdone by 2020, we prefer companies with
long term contracts in place.



Teekay LNG må være bra kjøp. 12.8Dollar aksjen. Utbytte økes fra 0.14 til 0.19 dollar pr kvartal fra Q19.
Etablert tilbakekjøpprogram på 100musd. Nybyggingsprogrammet er ferdig i 2019.
Intjeningen vil øke når alle skipene kommer i drift. Tidligere betalte TGP 0.76dollar pr kvartal i utbytte.
De har ikke hatt emisjon men betalt nybygg med løpene intjening.....
RSinvest
01.02.2019 kl 06:11 5232

Det jeg siktet til i et tidligere innlegg. Den eskalerende interessen for LNG-shipping viser at flere og flere ser store muligheter innenfor segmentet.
Blir artig å se. Uansett flere år til de klarer å drepe markedet om det skulle bli utfallet.

https://www.tradewindsnews.com/gas/1687995/qatars-usd-11bn-newbuild-plans-show-scale-of-lng-ambitions
vicktor
01.02.2019 kl 10:36 5109

Jeg har benyttet kursfallet til å kjøpe flere aksjer i Flex LNG, dette må bli veldig bra.
Selv om Qatar bygger sine egne båter, så vil disse båtene til Fredriksen, som bruker mye mindre drivstoff,
konkurrere ut eldre båter.
RSinvest
01.02.2019 kl 11:11 5078

Samme her. Har måtte sitte på hendene mine og vært tålmodig som bare det, men har lønnet seg. Kjøpt litt mer nå på lave 11'ere. Kjøper sakte men sikkert nedover slik jeg gjorde før Q3. Det ble slam dunk!
Om dette er bunnen for denne gang..? Det får vi se. Er fortsatt langt fra fullastet, men vil sitte inne med litt i forkant av Q4 just in case. Kalleklev sitter dypere i det enn meg og med høyere snitt. Samme gjør nesten samtlige av innsiderne. Er vel kun Paulli som er i + per nå.
Om man ser på det tekniske vil jeg først og fremst vil jeg se om den bryter 11,15 i dag. Trender nedover, men så er vi offseason.
Blir som å kjøpe cabriolet på vinterstid dette. Man må vente til sommeren for å få full utnyttelse, men man kan gjøre en bra deal.

Happy Trading og God Helg folkens!
RSinvest
01.02.2019 kl 11:14 5080

Mulig Bullish Harami Cross i dag ser jeg nå. Må bekreftes, så ikke kast sparepengene etter det med en gang og skyld på meg. Uansett, mulig bunn foreløpig.
Empire
01.02.2019 kl 13:34 4986

Bra tråd :)

Kjøper 11.20 og håper som menigheten at vi snart når en bunn for ratefallet

Target 14, 70 før sommeren, med nye muligheter når sommervikarene til DNB er tilbake i juli :)
Redigert 01.02.2019 kl 13:34 Du må logge inn for å svare
Triton
01.02.2019 kl 16:52 4876

Rater uke 5, litt ned fra uke 4 men fremdeles rater som Flex tener penger på. https://cdn2.hubspot.net/hubfs/4375355/Research/Tankers/fw_week_5_2019.pdf
RSinvest
01.02.2019 kl 17:43 4836

Og skipsverdiene ligger på 188musd kontra 184,5 på samme tid i fjor.
Skal nevnes at de 7 nye som Flex har bestillt ble kjøpt til 180musd om jeg ikke husker feil. Så 8mill usd i pluss per skip før de har seilt en meter.
Redigert 01.02.2019 kl 17:46 Du må logge inn for å svare
vicktor
01.02.2019 kl 18:32 4785

Sør-Korea kutter LNG-skatten med 74 %, samtidig som skatten på termisk kull økes med 27 %, fra april måned.
Det står å lese på FLNG sine sider hos Nordnet
RSinvest
01.02.2019 kl 21:36 4695

Enormt bra.

Legger ved linken her:
https://www.spglobal.com/platts/en/market-insights/latest-news/natural-gas/020119-south-korea-to-cut-lng-taxes-by-74-in-april-raise-thermal-coal-tax-by-27

Litt om Sør Koreas LNG import i 2018 uten disse kuttene:

Korea’s imports of liquefied natural gas reached an all-time high in 2018 amid a spike in purchases from the United States, industry data showed on Jan. 28.

The country’s LNG imports totaled 44.04 million tons last year, up 17.3 percent from the prior year and a new record high, according to the data from industry sources and the Korea International Trade Association
Qatar was Korea’s largest LNG import source, accounting for 32.4 percent of the total. Australia came next with 17.9 percent, followed by the US with 10.6 percent and Oman with 9.7 percent.

In particular, LNG imports from America more than doubled in 2018 from a year earlier as Korea sharply expanded shale gas purchases.

LNG imports from the US came to 4.66 million tons last year, up a whopping 138 percent from the previous year.

According to the US Energy Information Agency, Korea brought in 4.54 million tons of LNG from America in the first 10 months of last year, accounting for 23.6 percent of its exports at 19.24 million tons.

Korea became the largest LNG importer from the US in 2018, outstripping Mexico. In 2017, Korea was the second-largest LNG importer from America, trailing Mexico.

http://www.theinvestor.co.kr/view.php?ud=20190128000155
RSinvest
06.02.2019 kl 08:01 4324

ExxonMobil, Qatar Petroleum makes FID to Proceed with Golden Pass LNG Export Project

IRVING, Texas—-ExxonMobil and partner Qatar Petroleum said that they have made a final investment decision to proceed with development of the Golden Pass LNG export project located in Sabine Pass, Texas. Construction will begin in the first quarter of 2019 and the facility is expected to start up in 2024.

“Golden Pass will provide an increased, reliable, long-term supply of liquefied natural gas to global gas markets, stimulate local growth and create thousands of jobs,” said Darren Woods, chairman and chief executive officer of Exxon Mobil Corporation (NYSE:XOM). “The extensive experience of ExxonMobil and Qatar Petroleum provides the expertise, resources and financial strength needed to construct and operate an integrated liquefaction and export facility in the United States.”

The $10+ billion liquefaction project will have capacity to produce around 16 million tons of LNG per year. It is expected to create about 9,000 jobs over the five-year construction period and more than 200 permanent jobs during operations. Preliminary estimates by an independent study indicate the project could generate up to $31 billion in U.S. economic gains and more than $4.6 billion in direct federal, state and local tax revenues over the life of the project.

Golden Pass is part of ExxonMobil’s plans to invest more than $50 billion over the next five years to build and expand manufacturing facilities in the U.S. This includes the Growing the Gulf initiative, which will create about 45,000 jobs in America.

Working interests in the Golden Pass LNG export project are 70 percent Qatar Petroleum and 30 percent ExxonMobil. This project builds upon the successful international relationship between ExxonMobil and Qatar Petroleum, with Qatar Petroleum joining ExxonMobil in exploration and development activities in Argentina, Brazil and Mozambique.

http://oilandgasrepublic.com/exxonmobil-qatar-petroleum-makes-fid-to-proceed-with-golden-pass-lng-export-project/
Redigert 06.02.2019 kl 08:01 Du må logge inn for å svare
delta
06.02.2019 kl 23:29 4021

Spotratene glir merkbart nedover for hver uke iht. Fearnleys Weekly Report mens TC holder ser ganske bra, 1 års TC nå på USD 84k/dag for TFDE.
Iht. Fearnley i dag spot Øst av Suez USD 52,5k/dag og vest av Suez USD 58k/dag for TFDE ned fra forrige onsdags hhv. USD 58k/dag og USD 65k/dag. Tillagt premie for FLNGs skip ligger vel spotratenivået nå marginalt under det GasLog har inngått langsiktige kontrakter på for skip de har i ordre og som noen synes er lave ratenivåer for lange kontrakter (anslagsvis USD 68k/dag).

https://www.hellenicshippingnews.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/02/fw_week_6_2019b.pdf

Redigert 06.02.2019 kl 23:37 Du må logge inn for å svare
RSinvest
07.02.2019 kl 23:14 3638

GLOBAL LNG-Asian price falls to 17-month low as trade moves west

By Ekaterina Kravtsova

LONDON, Feb 7 (Reuters) - Asian spot prices for liquefied natural gas (LNG) dipped to a 17-month low on subdued trading activity in Asia-Pacific due to a week-long Chinese New Year holiday and a number of new supply offers on the market.

Spot prices for March delivery to northeast Asia are estimated at around $6.80 per million British thermal units (mmBtu), down $0.20/mmBtu from the previous week. This is the lowest level since September 2017, Refinitiv Eikon data showed.

Spreads between global LNG delivery prices remain tight, with expectations of a further rise in arrivals into Europe.

“Some people keep optimising (LNG volumes in the Far East), but fresh demand remains low,” an LNG trader said.

Significant demand came from India however.

Gujarat State Petroleum Corp (GSPC) is looking to buy 12 cargoes for delivery between April 2019 and March 2020 open until Feb. 19.

Pakistan LNG opened this week a tender for six cargoes for delivery in May and June open until March 11.

Kuwait Petroleum Corp (KPC) (IPO-KUWP.KW) closed on Tuesday a tender for delivery on Feb. 26-27.. The tender could be awarded as low as $6.01-$6.50/mmBtu, one trade source said.

On the supply side, Abu Dhabi National Oil Co (ADNOC) closed on Thursday a tender for a cargo for loading at its Das Island plant on March 10-12.

Angola LNG is offering until Feb. 12 a cargo from the Soyo plant for delivery between late February and mid-March depending on the destination.

In Europe, PetroChina International (London) offered at least two cargoes from its Yamal equity offtake for delivery in northwest Europe on March 3-5 and March 28-29, with the sale expected to close next week.

Yamal volumes into Europe have been above those from the United States this month so far, a change in a trend from last month. Britain expects to receive three LNG cargoes from Yamal until mid-February, two of which are sold by Russian producer Novatek to Swiss-based trader Vitol, sources said.

Gas prices in Europe edged down.

The best bid this week for delivery of LNG into northwest Europe was at a $0.18/mmBtu discount to the Dutch front-month gas price, a trader said.

In Spain, prices were even lower, at around $0.20-0.25/mmBtu below the Dutch price, the source said.

“Such a discount to (the Dutch price) is a sign of a very weak market,” the trader said.

LNG send-outs in Iberia jumped this week, Refinitiv Eikon data showed, with little space left in Spanish terminals for fresh arrivals.

The number of cargoes from the United States has been so far much lower this month than in January, with five cargoes expected to reach Europe between Feb. 6 and Feb. 21. In January, 19 U.S. cargoes were delivered to Europe.

Loadings from Gulf of Mexico plants in the U.S. have been delayed by heavy fog. Corpus Christi and Sabine Pass Train 5 are still in a commissioning phase. When both issues are resolved, U.S. exports to Europe are likely to rise, which is expected in late February and March, an industry source said. (Reporting by Ekaterina Kravtsova Editing by Alexandra Hudson)

https://www.reuters.com/article/global-lng-asian-price-falls-to-17-month/global-lng-asian-price-falls-to-17-month-low-as-trade-moves-west-idUSL5N2028DY
RSinvest
08.02.2019 kl 09:15 3451

Vil dette trigge videre økning i skibsverdiene?

Korea’s Mega-Merger of Shipyards Set to Dominate Global Shipbuilding
in Shipbuilding News 08/02/2019


Shipyards in South Korea are trying to forge a new shape for the industrial sector that underpins global shipping.

The merger of Hyundai Heavy Industries Co. and Daewoo Shipbuilding & Marine Engineering Co. being engineered in Seoul promises to create a behemoth controlling 20% of the global market for new ships, and an even bigger share of the market for the liquefied natural gas carriers that are reconfiguring global energy markets.

The combination also would leave rival yards in China and Japan struggling to compete, raising questions about those countries’ commitment to supporting their own ship builders.

Shipbuilding is a vital part of the economies of Asian countries such as South Korea and China, employing hundreds of thousands of people. Seoul and Beijing repeatedly bailed out or subsidized money-losing shipyards during a long slump in maritime trade as vessel operators trimmed their fleets and new orders plummeted.

Building Dominance
A combined Hyundai Heavy and Daewoo Shipbuilding entity would create the world’s biggest shipyard.

But the industry is now regaining its bearings, boosted by big trends in energy markets and new regulations. Stricter marine pollution rules that take effect next year, as well as rising demand for advanced ships such as LNG carriers, have triggered a wave of new orders to replace aging fleets.

The merged Korean superyard may benefit the most. Between them, HHI and DSME have 52% of existing orders for LNG carriers, and they control a fifth of the broader ship building market, according to marine data provider VesselsValue.

The total combined Korean order-book now is worth $31.4 billion, compared with $15.2 billion for China’s top two shipyards—China State Shipbuilding Corp. and China Shipbuilding Industry Corp.—which also plan to merge.

Japan’s two biggest facilities, Imabari Shipbuilding Co. and Oshima Shipbuilding Co., are separate companies with a combined order-book of $12.6 billion.

“Our efforts over the past five years was to keep HHI and DSME from sinking,” said a senior Korean official involved in the merger. “The target now is to create a yard facility that will dominate ship orders, especially high-margin vessels like LNG carriers, for years to come.”

LNG ships cost on average $175 million apiece and the profit margin for the companies that build them is almost double that of other vessels, according to shipbuilding executives. Bulk carriers typically cost around $25 million each.

Korean yards are also the favorites to win one of the biggest ship orders ever—a deal for some 60 LNG carriers set to be signed by Qatar to ship gas from 2023. The order is estimated to be worth more than $10 billion, according to shipping services provider Clarkson PLC.

The new ships will roughly double Qatar’s existing fleet, which was mostly built by Korean yards. Some of the ships will be used to move gas from the Golden Pass LNG facility in Sabine, Texas, which is 70% owned by Qatar Petroleum, 17.6% by Exxon Mobil and 12.4% by ConocoPhillips .

“If you want LNG ships, you go to DSME or HHI,” said a Greek shipowner whose company operates around two dozen such vessels. “LNG will become a pivotal fuel over the next decade and the Korean yards will be the biggest beneficiaries.”

Rising demand from countries including Japan, China, Korea and India has tripled seaborne LNG cargoes since 2000 to 308 million metric tons last year, according to Bloomberg New Energy Finance. Capacity for another 170 million metric tons is due to be added by 2030, if planned projects go onstream.

Big shipowners like those in Greece are so confident of future demand that they are buying LNG carriers speculatively, rather than on the back of long-term contracts with energy majors as they usually would.

“You need at least four ships to have a critical mass, so it’s a big gamble,” said Basil Karatzas of New-York-based Karatzas Marine Advisors and Co. “Years ago the Greeks put their bets on crude tankers and it paid off. Now they are doing the same with LNG ships, and history shows that they are pretty good in reading the market.”

The windfall for the merged HHI-DSME would be difficult for competitors to match. The $2 billion all-share deal, which is expected to be completed by the end of this year, comes with $2.25 billion in state liquidity support on top of a $2.6 billion bailout for DSME in 2017.

Chinese shipping officials hate the deal, but won’t be able to stop it, shipping regulation experts say. Beijing will now be pressed to complete the approved merger between CSSC and CSIC, but it will likely take time to see it through. The two companies have complicated ownership structures, and pressure to preserve jobs as China’s economy slows could make it harder for the combined company to cut costs.

“The shipbuilding consolidation is part of a wider plan to restructure strategic sectors like shipping, telecoms, airlines and energy,” said a senior executive at a state-run Chinese shipping and logistics business. “We are inching ahead, but at a snail’s pace.”

https://www.hellenicshippingnews.com/koreas-mega-merger-of-shipyards-set-to-dominate-global-shipbuilding/
Redigert 08.02.2019 kl 15:52 Du må logge inn for å svare
really
08.02.2019 kl 10:01 3393

En sak jeg har alt for liten kunnskap om i LNG markedet er lagringskapasitet. Markedsstørrelsen er kjent og i rask utvikling, men hvor store lagre kan de ha og hvor stor % av årsforbruket kan de lagre per marked? Og hvor stor lagringskapasitet finnes det i markedet i forhold til skipningskapasiteten?

Min arbeidshypotese har vært at markedet har vært ekstremt industrielt med stabile fraktrater og relativt lite bufferlagring, Men med et voksende spotmarked blir det behov for mer lagringskapasitet for å jevne ut svingningene i spotratene.

Er det noen som kjenner til gode rapporter eller artikler om emnet?
Empire
08.02.2019 kl 10:25 3350

Her er en blekke som er ett år gammel (tall fra 2017) som tar for seg det meste innen LNG frem mot 2023, hvis jeg ikke husker helt feil. Sikkert flere blekker rundt forbi som kanskje er mer oppdatert?

https://www.igu.org/sites/default/files/node-document-field_file/IGU_LNG_2018_0.pdf
Redigert 08.02.2019 kl 10:27 Du må logge inn for å svare
RSinvest
10.02.2019 kl 11:47 2882

Fant dette om lagringskapasitet.

A similar mismatch between demand and the available infrastructure is seen on the storage front. With a volume of 11 billion cubic metres, China’s storage covers only 5% of its total consumption. That compares to an average of 10% - 12% globally, and 26% in the EU 27 plus Ukraine. Insufficient storage capacity has constrained China’s ability to import more gas via pipeline throughout the year for use in the winter months.

https://knect365.com/energy/article/293e5638-6403-4ba9-a401-cb9f8a31e5dc/the-forces-shaping-chinese-lng-demand
really
10.02.2019 kl 13:15 2833

Takk for gode linker!

De bekrefter min teori om at China ikke har lagringskapasitet til å utnytte lavere fraktrater når LNG etterspørselen ble lavere enn ventet i vinter. Og det betyr også at ratene virkelig kan ta av om etterspørselen blir større enn ventet.
RSinvest
11.02.2019 kl 16:36 2525

Etter 3 bullish bunnformasjoner på rad ble endelig ett av de bekreftet. Stengte tilogmed HOD.
Blir spennende om den klarer å bryte ut av den fallende trendkanalen.
RSinvest
11.02.2019 kl 21:03 2364

Det bygges.

China mining group plans riverside LNG terminal -media

SINGAPORE, Feb 11 (Reuters) -

* Chinese coal miner Huainan Mining Group has won provincial approval to build a terminal along the Yangtze river to receive liquefied natural gas (LNG), according to a news report on a website affiliated with the Ministry of Transport published on Jan. 30.

* The terminal, which the company claims is the first one to be built along the Yangtze, will have a handling capacity of 2 million tonnes annually and will cost about 3 billion yuan ($442.71 million) to build, according to the report.

* The terminal, to be located at the port of Sanshan in the inland city of Wuhu in Anhui province, is slated for completion in 2022, the report said.

* Huainan Mining is already partnering with state-run China National Offshore Oil Corp for a planned LNG receiving terminal at the coastal port of Yancheng in Jiangsu province. The 3 million tonne-per-year terminal is expected to be operational by the end of 2020

https://af.reuters.com/article/commoditiesNews/idAFL3N20617K
RSinvest
14.02.2019 kl 07:31 1849

UPDATE 1-China's Jan crude oil imports rise from a year ago, gas imports at record

* Jan crude imports off peak but holds above 10 mln bpd

* Gas imports hit record as importers anticipated firmer demand

* Refined fuel exports up 31.6 pct y/y

By Chen Aizhu

SINGAPORE, Feb 14 (Reuters) - China’s crude oil imports in January rose 4.8 percent from a year earlier, customs data showed on Thursday, with refineries building up their stockpiles ahead of the Lunar New Year holidays that fell in early February.

Natural gas imports into the world’s biggest importer of the fuel rose to a monthly record of 9.81 million tonnes, exceeding the previous peak in December of 9.23 million tonnes, as state-run importers hiked volumes in anticipation of increasing heating demand.

China, the world’s biggest crude oil importer, took in 42.6 million tonnes of oil in January, according to the data released by the General Administration of Chinese Customs. That works out to 10.03 million barrels per day (bpd), the third straight month that imports have exceeded the 10 million bpd mark.

January imports are down from the record on a daily basis of 10.43 million bpd in November as independent processors last month reduced procurements because of smaller quota allotments for 2019.

But purchases by new private refiners Hengli Petrochemical and Zhejiang Petrochemical for test operations kept import levels elevated.

Northeast China-based Hengli Petrochemical aims to have all the units at its 400,000-bpd plant operating at full capacity by the end of March.

Gas imports, including piped gas and liquefied natural gas (LNG) shipped in tankers, rose to 9.81 million tonnes last month, up 26.2 percent from January 2018.

Even with high inventories amid a warmer-than-usual winter, China’s LNG imports were expected to hit a record in January as state energy firms pre-arranged shipments in anticipation of stronger demand.

Customs data also showed China’s refined fuel exports rose 31.6 percent in January from the same month last year to 5.42 million tonnes.

State refineries, equipped with higher export quotas, are shipping out fuel in greater volumes and reaching more distant markets.

https://www.reuters.com/article/us-iea-oil/global-oil-supply-to-swamp-demand-in-2019-despite-output-cuts-iea-idUSKCN1Q20WK
Ka'l
14.02.2019 kl 09:50 1750

"Nu går alt så meget bedre"
Da kan vi vel se fram til KURSDOBLING.
K
RSinvest
14.02.2019 kl 10:14 1718

Njaa.
Er ikke helt trygg på det tekniske bildet. Litt bearish tendenser i chartet. Vi får se hvor den ender dagen.
Varsom
14.02.2019 kl 11:00 1685

Ingen vits i å forhastet seg med kjøp her enda. Begynner å kjøpe igjen på lav kr. 10,-
RSinvest
14.02.2019 kl 11:17 1672

Om den kommer så lavt.. Fortjener vel strengt tatt ikke det. Skulle vært synsk.
Varsom
14.02.2019 kl 11:21 1664

Tenker den skal ned å teste bunnen en gang til, minst... Ratene kommer nok til å ligge nokså flate ut våren vil jeg tro og det er mange utolmodige sjeler her inne.
RSinvest
14.02.2019 kl 12:09 1607

Om den stenger under 11,15 skal jeg være enig med deg. Ellers kan dette være et pust i bakken.
RSinvest
14.02.2019 kl 14:11 1531

GasLog posts record profit on high spot earnings

Monaco-based LNG shipper GasLog reported record annual profit with spot earnings in a tight LNG shipping market boosting the figures.

The company reported a profit for the year 2018 of $47.7 million, which compares to $15.5 million recorded in 2017.

Speaking of the results, GasLog’s CEO Paul Wogan said that the earnings were driven in large part by “very strong earnings from our spot vessels against a backdrop of extreme tightness in the LNG shipping market.”

These spot earnings, combined with GasLog’s fleet growth during the year, and the company’s strong operational performance and strict cost control, delivered record annual result, Wogan said.

“While spot rates have recently moderated from fourth quarter peaks, in line with historical seasonal trends, we expect tightness in LNG shipping markets to return given forecast LNG supply growth through 2020 and relatively few uncommitted newbuild vessels delivering in that period,” he said.

Looking beyond 2020, GasLog expects additional shipping capacity will be required if consensus LNG demand and supply forecasts are realized.

However, whilst the company does now believe that the LNG shipping market is heading towards a balanced state early next decade, the long-term secular growth of LNG supply and demand mean that, over the medium and long-term it will be a dynamic and growing industry.

The shipper did note that newbuilding order activity in 2019 needs to slow relative to 2018 levels in order to reduce the risk of vessel oversupply.

https://www.lngworldnews.com/gaslog-posts-record-profit-on-high-spot-earnings/
RSinvest
14.02.2019 kl 21:21 1389

Sakset fra Gaslogs Q4 rapport.

LNG Market Update and Outlook

LNG demand, as estimated by Wood Mackenzie, is expected to have increased by 9%, from 288 million tonnes per annum (“mtpa”) in 2017 to 313 mtpa in 2018. According to China’s General Administration of Customs, China’s LNG imports increased by approximately 16 mtpa, or 41%, to 54 mtpa in 2018, driven mainly by continued coal-to-gas switching in the industrial, commercial and residential sectors. South Korea, Pakistan, Thailand and Mexico also experienced strong growth in LNG imports during 2018. The outlook remains robust, with Wood Mackenzie forecasting compound annual growth in global LNG demand of 6% between 2018 and 2025. This growth is expected to be broad-based, with Wood Mackenzie forecasting that South East Asia and Europe will account for approximately 70% of the 148 mtpa net increase in demand between 2018 and 2025.

According to Wood Mackenzie, global LNG supply in 2018 totaled 326 million tonnes (“mt”), or a 9% increase on 2017. Several new LNG supply projects and the ramp-up of existing facilities contributed to the increase in LNG production in 2018. During the year, new production started in the United States (Cove Point, Corpus Christi Train 1 and Sabine Pass Train 5), Australia (Wheatstone Train 2, Ichthys), Russia (Yamal Trains 2 & 3) and Cameroon Floating LNG. Supply from existing liquefaction facilities in Egypt, Trinidad and Tobago and Oman also increased following successful efforts to raise domestic gas production. Downtime at existing facilities in Malaysia and Russia partially offset these gains.

Based on Wood Mackenzie’s current forecasts, 2019 is anticipated to be the strongest year ever for supply growth in the LNG market, with supply expected to increase by 40 mtpa to 366 mtpa, a 12% increase on 2018. This includes new LNG production from Elba Island, Cameron, Freeport and Corpus Christi Train 2 in the United States, the Prelude floating LNG project offshore Australia, further increases in Russia’s output and the continued ramp-up of projects which were brought onstream in 2018.

During 2018, three new LNG liquefaction projects reached Final Investment Decision (“FID”), underpinning further LNG supply growth during the next decade. LNG Canada (14 mtpa) in western Canada, Corpus Christi Train 3 (4.5 mtpa) in the United States and the Greater Tortue Ahmeyim project offshore Mauritania and Senegal (2.5 mtpa) were all approved during the year. In February 2019, the Golden Pass (16 mtpa) project in the United States also reached FID. According to Wood Mackenzie, proposed projects (including Golden Pass) in the United States with a combined capacity of approximately 35 mtpa are expected to gain investment approval in 2019. Outside the United States, Qatar is aiming to take FID on an expansion of existing facilities from 77 to 110 mtpa. New projects offshore Mozambique (28 mtpa) and the Arctic LNG-2 project (20 mtpa) in Russia are also expected by Wood Mackenzie to be approved in 2019.

In parallel with the progress on new supply FIDs, in 2018 there was a significant increase in the number of announced long-term LNG off-take contracts. According to Wood Mackenzie and company disclosures, 95 mtpa of long-term (defined as greater than 5 years’ duration) off-take commitments have been agreed since the beginning of 2018, compared to 25 mtpa in 2017. The nature of the LNG marketplace also continued to evolve. According to the Financial Times, the top three independent commodity traders increased their delivered LNG volumes by almost 40% to 31 mt in 2018, taking market share from traditional participants such as national oil companies and major integrated oil and gas companies.

In the LNG shipping spot market, tri-fuel diesel electric (“TFDE”) headline rates, as reported by Clarksons, averaged $89,000 per day in 2018, a 93% increase on 2017 levels. Headline TFDE rates rose significantly in the fourth quarter of 2018 and reached all-time highs of $190,000 per day in November 2018 following a marked decrease in spot ship availability. Average headline TFDE rates in the fourth quarter of 2018 were $150,000 per day. Headline rates for steam propulsion (“Steam”) vessels also reached multi-year highs of $98,000 per day in late 2018. In recent weeks however, relatively mild winter weather and ample inventory levels in key Asian markets have resulted in falling Asian LNG prices, reducing the incentive to move LNG cargoes from the Atlantic to the Pacific Basin and resulting in a seasonal rise in prompt vessel availability and falling spot rates. Headline TFDE spot rates are currently assessed at $60,000 per day. Notwithstanding this recent fall and the likelihood of continued seasonality in the spring shoulder months, we continue to believe that the medium-term outlook for spot rates through 2019 and 2020 is positive given supportive LNG commodity fundamentals and LNG shipping supply and demand. However, spot rates may be prone to further periods of seasonality and volatility similar to that seen in 2018.

During 2018 there was a significant increase in term chartering activity. Based on Poten data, charters between 181 days to seven years duration increased to 19% of total fixtures in 2018, from 5% in 2017. Our expectation of structural tightness in the LNG carrier market, combined with increasing spot vessel availability, could result in this trend continuing in 2019 and beyond.

According to Poten, there were 61 orders for dedicated LNG carrier newbuilds in 2018, an all-time high. The orderbook now totals 105 dedicated LNG carriers (>100,000 cbm), of which 63% are backed by long-term contracts. The positive outlook for LNG commodity and LNG shipping markets, as well as historically low newbuild prices, resulted in both existing LNG carrier owners and new entrants ordering new vessels. Based on 2018 newbuilding orders and current forecasts of LNG supply growth, we now believe that the LNG shipping market is heading towards a balanced state early next decade. As such, the requirement for additional shipping capacity in this period has now been largely addressed. This implies that newbuilding order activity in 2019 needs to slow relative to 2018 levels in order to reduce the risk of vessel oversupply.
Douglas
15.02.2019 kl 10:17 1202

Hvis man tror på teknisk analyse,ser man helt klart en omvendt hode skulder med halslinje 11,10 og potensial opp mot 12,60
RSinvest
15.02.2019 kl 12:47 1125

Hadde forventet nedgang i dag, så må si utviklingen i dag kom som en positiv overraskelse.
Er per nå en ny bullish harami i daily chartet og ser tendenser til at det snur i weekly. Det er første gang siden den begynte å falle i Oktober.

Vet det er kaldere i Kina nå, men er ventet å være forbipasserende. Ellers har jeg lest at årets El-nino ikke er like ille som tidligere år.
Spennende å se om ratene skulle snu etter Kinesisk nyttår. Var interessant å lese at til tross for El-nino, så satte de ny rekord på import av LNG.
Hva vil det si for ratenivået i sept når etterspørselen vil være mye høyere..?

Stenger FLNG over 11.40 i dag så er jeg happy. 11.35 ok.
RSinvest
15.02.2019 kl 12:53 1117

Rater fra Fearnley uke 7:

SPOT MARKET (usd/day) This week Last week Low2019 High 2019
East of Suez 155-165'cbm 49 000 52 500 49 000 100 000
West of Suez 155-165'cbm 53 000 58 000 53 000 100 000
1 yr TC 155-165'cbm 79 000 84 000 79 000 92 500
RSinvest
15.02.2019 kl 21:38 1024

Tenkte meg dette kom til å bli tema. Er godt skipene Flex skal ha er booket til lave priser. For vår del kan denne fusjonen bare komme.

As storm brews over merger with HHI, DSME wins LNGC order

Shipowners should also be concerned about the merger, said Mr Park, because the deal would create “obvious cartels for raising newbuilding prices. As the merger deal will be the monopolistic and oligopolistic behaviour harming fair competition, it seems that shipowners claim this violation to the international anti-trust authorities.”

https://www.lngworldshipping.com/news/view,as-storm-brews-over-merger-with-hhi-dsme-wins-lngc-order_56864.htm

Det er nesten merkelig hvor svake LNG-aksjene er for tiden. I USA er GasLog og Golar i nærheten av laveste nivå på 12-måneder. Det må trolig være stor usikkerhet om fremtidige rater som gjør disse aksjene blytunge.

Faktisk virker det som det er tiden er mer positivitet innenfor LPG-frakt til tross for at ratene der er i nærheten av all time low. Hvem ville trodd det for noen få måneder siden?
Warrent
15.02.2019 kl 22:53 955

Som med bulk og tank osv. Shipping er lavt priset

Er kanskje mange som er redd det er der man merker handelskrigen først om det skulle skeie helt ut.
Det som er med LNG er at kineserne lar ikke innbyggerne sine få en ny gas shortage selv om de ikke handler med USA. De vil bare importere fra AUS, Qatar eller noen andre. Kortere distanser, men forstatt penger i kassa på spotmarkedet.
Ka'l
16.02.2019 kl 09:00 797

Man bør vel ikke klage på LNG-aksjer i dag når vi igår erfarte en kursoppgang på over 4% for FLNG. Nå går det tydeligvis rette veien, dvs OPP.
K

Flex vil neppe stige mye dersom ingen andre LNG-selskap begynner å bevege på seg. Hele sentimentet virker for tiden svakt.

Tror du de som kjøpte Flex på 15 når markedet var sterkt gjorde en bra deal? (På kort sikt) De ligger i minus.
Når markedet er sterkt, er det for sent vil jeg tro.
rolstad
16.02.2019 kl 15:37 529

Flex er helt klart et av selskapene med størst potensial på Oslo Børs.
Med vridning bort fra Kullkraft, vil etterspørsel overgå kapasitet på frakt av LNG i løpet av neste halvår.

r

Hei allesammen. Er det noen som har eksakte tall på OPEX pr dag for skipene til Flex? Da tenker jeg på lønninger, forsikring, administrasjon, reprasjoner, div. gebyrer ,og drivstoff kostnader. Avskrivninger og nedskrivninger skal ikke være med i regnestykket(ettersom det gir lite mening). Vet dette har vært oppe til diskusjon før, og da var det noen som mente 40000 $ per dag per skip. Sjølv synes jeg det høres litt mye ut fordi at lønninger og drivstoff kostnader (etter det jeg har skjønt) er omtrent det dyreste og de 2 beløpene blir vel neppe mer enn 10 000 $ per dag per skip. Selv tenker jeg at det er omkring 20 000 $ dagen per dag per skip. Har prøvd å lete litt i presentasjoner og rapporter osv, men har ikke funnet så mye i Flex. For dynagas Ltd. mener jeg at de hadde omkring 10 000$ dagen for Steam, noe som virker veldig lavt. Mulig jeg husker feil. I Q1 presentajsonen til Gaslog sto det OPEX på ca. 17 000$ dagen per skip. De har jo relavtivt mange moderne skip(ikke så mye MEGI, men TFDE) Da er vel Opex på flex sine skip noe rundt der også? Antakeligvis helt feil, men derfor jeg spør dere. Opex har tross alt mye å si for inntjening i dårlige tider.

Har tenkt til å regne litt på fremtidig inntjening. Da er det fordel å vite kostnader, spesielt ved dårlige rater. Selv syns jeg at flex virker ganske greit priset på dagens nivåer, mtp NAV og forward EV/EBITDA(selv med dårlige rater og 40000$ dagen OPEX). Men greit å vite kostnader før man eventuelt begynner å estimere snittrater og inntjening.

Takker for alle svar.

EDIT: Ok, nå fant jeg det. I Q4 2017 presentasjonen står det OPEX 13 000 $ dagen per skip! Men... Samlet "Cash break even per day" er 41 000$ ( OPEX + Debt service expenses). "Debt service costs per day per vessel" er det da kun renter eller renter + nedbetaling? Hvis dette er renter + nedbetaling så vil vel denne utgiftsposten forsvinne etterhvert, hvis jeg ikke tar feil? Og hvis nedbetaling er medregnet så burde ikke dette regnes som en ren utgift ettersom det vil øke egenkapitalandelen. Noen som vet?
Redigert 16.02.2019 kl 18:16 Du må logge inn for å svare

Bra det. Løsning på handelskrigen mellom Kina og USA kommer til å bli den viktigste kursdriveren fremover + bedre rater, men definivt bra at EU ønsker mere lng fra US -EU.

Med Kina i førersetet så bygges nye kullkraftverk i stor stil. Det finnes enorme ressurser på kull som de ønsker å benytte
Det latterlige er dog at nasjoner som Kina er fritatt for CO2 reduksjon frem til 2030 iht Paris avtalen.
Så vil være ekstra forsiktig med å ha alt for stor tro på av Kina, India m/fl kommer til å erstatte kullkraft med LNG, og/eller LPG
Om man googler på kullkraft så er det vel flere artikler om dette siste år.
Kina tror jeg foreløpig overser problemer med forurensing i litt for stor grad, selv hjemme, og de skal uansett bli vanskelige å få til noe klima forhandlingsbord videre også.
Det eneste på kort sikt måtte vel bli at de forplikter seg til å importere LPG fra US i en ny handelsavtale