GOGL - Oktober #2

Sa2ri
GOGL 12.10.2018 kl 18:30 21790

Bulk report – Week 41
12 October 2018

Capesize
A sharp reversal of fortunes for the big ships as the week closed after a depressed beginning. To start with drops were sudden, with the key West Australia/China rate falling over a dollar in one day, dropping Tuesday to $7.95 before climbing to $8,50 on Wednesday and finishing the week in the low $9.00s. Timecharter rates also rose sharply with a well-described 180,000dwt reaching over $20,000 daily for China delivery with West Australia rounds. Brazil loaders initially saw rates change little despite Vale allegedly fixing several ships as well as CSN. Rates from Tubarao/China most of the week failed to reach $21 but Friday saw a report of a 27-28 October cargo fixed at $21.00 and rumours of a second-half November cargo fixed at $22.50. The North Atlantic market was initially very slow, but here too rates barrelled higher despite little change in cargo volumes. A good spec 179,000dwt open Gibraltar, fixed a trans-Atlantic round at $18,000 daily with Skaw-Gibraltar redelivery, or, $20,000 daily if Cape Passero and a super eco achieved $23,750 daily from Gibraltar for a run from Bolivar to Rotterdam.

Panamax
Last week the North Atlantic firmed as sustained demand saw a clear out of most of the prompt tonnage. Several charterers took tonnage for two to three laden legs despite paying a premium, with modern Kamsarmaxes fixed at $18,000 redelivery Atlantic. The South was a little slower than previous weeks, with attention now focused on November stems, which, seemed less abundant. However, rates have so far remained steady, with well-described ships still commanding around $16,500 from Singapore. The Pacific began to look more positional, with very limited NoPac enquiry. The region has been underpinned by consistent Indonesian and Australian mineral demand. However, vessels open in the North seemed to be discounting to find cover. Period interest remained with several vessels now being taken in the Atlantic to cover both trans-Atlantic and front haul stems.

Les hele rapporten her: http://thebalticbriefing.com/bulk-report/bulk-report-week-41-3/
KJEPET
31.10.2018 kl 09:47 951

Ja, under normale omstendigheter er dette penger på gaten. Men nå har markedet bestemt seg for at Kina går konk og GOGL er verst stilt i klassen, og vil styre mot konkurs neste år. Om du tror på dette scenario så må du gjøre som resten, og selge så fort du kan, når de få kjøperne som nå er ferdigkjøpt for dagen. Som du ser bygges selgersiden nå kraftig opp, og kjøpersiden skrumper inn. En helt vanlig dag i GOGL.

Om du er av en annen oppfatning, som meg, kan du meske deg med billige aksjer, uten å bli forstyrret :-)

Hehe, Kina konk?? Neppe.
Tilogmed det stolte kinesiske folket har vett til å gi seg i handelskrigen før det nærmer seg et slikt scenario.
Sist jeg sjekket var det vel fortsatt vekst i Kina til tross.
GOGL vil få heftig boost når handelskrigen opphører.
KJEPET
31.10.2018 kl 10:05 899

Selvsagt går dette helt fint. Men som sagt starter nå dagens nedgang i GOGL, mens vi går inn i november på rundt 20.000/d i cape. Vi får trøste oss med utbyttene de neste årene:-)

Satser på vi trenger lite trøst fremover Kjepet. Med rater på 20k så burde markedet ta til fornuft. Etter mitt syn ligger det an til reversering i dag. Får se om vi får bekreftelse på dette ila. uken.