Olje og Energi

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14.01.2019 kl 16:26 583


KSA's al-Falih's key remarks on the oil industry are the short version-must read:

" Looking at longer term fundamentals, the healthy demand growth rate of the past several years is projected to continue into the future as I mentioned. However, global economic growth and prosperity will be predicated on the presence of a healthy and vibrant oil industry operating in an environment which attracts the necessary investments that will ensure an equal amount of affordable and accessible oil supplies made available in a reliable and timely manner. Saudi Arabia is committed to representing a central part of that reliable supply as it has always done, and we will continue, as I mentioned, investing in our industry to do so.
Shifting to shale oil, I believe that it will not sustainably depress the market. For one thing, despite its healthy growth, it (Shale) can’t, by itself, meet the combined requirements of demand growth and the natural decline of oil fields around the world, particularly as I just mentioned with long-term investment still lagging in most parts of the world while the emphasis on short-cycle projects still predominates.

Furthermore, the growth of shale oil is highly dependent on stability and balance in the market. Healthy shale oil growth and a weak oil market are a contradiction in terms. Instead, market sentiment today is being shaped by undue concerns about demand, underestimation of the impact of agreed supply cuts, and a misreading of the supply-demand trends which causes counterfactual actions by financial players. In other words, if we look beyond the noise of weekly data and vibrations in the market, and the speculators’ herd-like behavior, I remain convinced that we are on the right track and that the oil market will quickly return to balance. If we find that more needs to be done, we will do so in unison with our OPEC and un-OPEC partners where collaboration has been proven to work, and it will be essential going forward.

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