LNG Carrier Sector Update: Earnings Surge To Three-Yea

ShippingAnalyst
FLNG
05.12.2017 kl 22:35
1297

Dette er en arkivert tråd!
http://gersemiresearch.com/2017/12/05/lng-carrier-sector-update-buy-earnings-surge-to-three-year-high/

The dynamics for LNG carriers have changed and the cyclical inflection point is definitively behind us as spot rates surge towards levels not seen in three years. We see utilization rising steadily towards the end of this decade, with corresponding improvements in earnings, vessel values and share prices. We reiterate our BUY recommendation on LNG carriers and highlight Flex LNG (TP 18) and GasLog (TP 22) as our top picks.

Estimate changes: Net supply YTD has been lower than our expectations, but we believe many of these vessels have slipped into 2018. We forecast supply growth of 7.1% (from 8.2%) in 2017E, 11.3% (10.9%) in 2018E and 8.0% (7.5%) in 2019E. Our demand forecast for 2017E is more or less unhanged at 13%, with 2018E at 14% (13%) and 2019E at 12% (15%). This increases the front-end of the utilization curve, with 2017E at 77% (76%) and 2018E at 80% (78%), representing spot rates (TFDE 160k cbm basis) of USD 46k/d (42k/d) and USD 52k/d (46k/d), respectively.

Key investment opportunities: We forecast avg. TCE across our peers at USD 62.7k/d in 4Q vs consensus at 49.8k/d. Thus, we expect a positive share price momentum from analyst’s upgrades ahead of next reporting season. Looking further, we expect a return to the USD 40s (TCE/d) in 1H18E due to demand seasonality and a surge of newbuildings hitting the water. Thus, we advise investor to stay long the sector and use any potential weakness in share prices to increase exposure ahead of significant upside towards the end of this decade. Our top picks remain Flex LNG and GasLog
Arkivert
Ka'l
06.12.2017 kl 06:59
761

Veldig bra og løfterikt innlegg for de som er inne long i FLNG og dessuten ALNG.
Men kursene gikk jo elendig i går.
K
Redigert 07.12.2017 kl 07:55 Arkivert
larserne
07.12.2017 kl 10:50
602

Ratene videre opp forrige uke!

LNG




SPOT MARKET (usd/day)

This week

Last week

Low 2017

High 2017


East of Suez 155-165'cbm 73,000.00 65,000.00 25,000.00 73,000.00
West of Suez 155-165'cbm 80,000.00 70,000.00 29,000.00 80,000.00
򖔁 yr TC 155-165'cbm 55,000.00 55,000.00 31,000.00 55,000.00
Arkivert
larserne
07.12.2017 kl 10:56
599

ttps://www.fearnleys.no/weekly_issue/view/728/
Arkivert
fjellmann1
07.12.2017 kl 22:41
541

oen nyheter i dag
Arkivert
Ka'l
08.12.2017 kl 11:20
498

Uforståelig at den positive kursutviklingen for ALNG og FLNG skulle stoppe nå når ratene er gode og selskapene tjener penger, og trolig øker inntjeningen kommende måneder?
K
Redigert 08.12.2017 kl 11:23 Arkivert
Simo
08.12.2017 kl 23:12
416

ttps://www.ft.com/video/e24204e1-73b4-4611-b3e7-b2d740a2a24
Arkivert
Ka'l
11.12.2017 kl 16:35
323

Ja nettopp! Vi ser at ALNG får en lett reprising i dag og da følger nok FLNG snart etter.
K
Arkivert
Tændis
11.12.2017 kl 16:48
305

Grunnen til at ALNG går idag er Dovre effekten. Dvs Stig Myrseth tar den inn i portefølja si!
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