"MSEIS- Arc- Kursmålet blir satt til 30kr"

11.05.2018 kl 09:07 556

Dette er en arkivert tråd!
Som sagt, det definitivt beste bettet innen seismikk i Oslo- 30 mai går selskapet over fra Smb listen til Hoved listen.

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Strong quarter and contract bonanza ahead

Magseis delivered Q1 results well ahead of expectations, driven by improved productivity and high utilization on Athena during the quarter. EBITDA came in at USD 10.4m compared to our estimate of USD 2.7m mainly due to higher revenues than expected (USD 24.6m vs. ARCe of USD 17.8m). Furthermore, the company reiterates its 2018 guidance of USD 100m in sales, as they see the vast majority of USD 550m in active tenders coming to award during Q2/18. We have adjusted our 2018 estimates accordingly while the remaining estimates are only fine-tuned. We continue to find risk reward highly attractive for Magseis and reiterate our Arctic Buy recommendation and NOK 30 target price.

· Revenues 38% above our estimates. Magseis reported Q1/18 revenues of USD 24.6m (ARCe: USD 17.8m & Bloomberg consensus: USD 18.7m), adj. EBITDA was USD 10.4m (ARCe: USD 2.7m & cons: USD 4.6m), and EBIT was USD 6.6m (ARCe: USD -2.1m & cons: USD 0.9m). Stronger than expected revenues were driven by improved productivity and utilization on the Red Sea project, while the costs were more or less in line with our expectations. Cash flow was somewhat weaker than expected with cash flow from operations of USD -6m vs. our USD 1m estimate. The deviation was due to higher than expected working capital, but management expects a reversal of that in Q2/18.
· Contract bonanza ahead. The OBS market continues to grow measured by the number of active tenders and RFQ. Furthermore, Magseis expect the Red Sea tender to be awarded in Q2/18 and also, several other tenders are expected to be awarded during Q2/18 as well. In total, Magseis is currently bidding on USD ~330m, and the vast majority of that is expected to be awarded in Q2/18. Therefore, Magseis maintain its revenue guidance of USD 100m for 2018, and we have adjusted our 2018 estimates accordingly.
· Estimate changes. We took down our 2018 estimates in our Q1/18 preview report due to no additional contracts after their Q4/17 presentation. However, Magseis is still confident on reaching the USD 100m in sales for 2018 and we have therefore assumed 2 additional MASS nodes contracts as well as an extension for the Red Sea job which leave us at a revenue estimate for 2018 of USD 100m and EBITDA/18e of USD 28m, while our 2019 estimates are only fine-tuned, and we now expect EBITDA/19e of USD56m (58) due to slightly higher SG&A cost.