Tilbake til: Olje og energi
Innlegg av: tuja (18.05.17 08:52 ), lest 1462 ganger
Ticker: EAM

EAM,analyse(neste erstatningsrakett,etter NOR?),tråd nr 2

EAM analyse - ser den i NOK 120.

EAM Solar (EAM NO Equity)



"This company is now effectively a giant lawsuit." Viktor Jakobsen, CEO, EAM Solar



Thesis summary and some background

EAM Solar is a Norwegian company trading on the Oslo Axxess Exchange. EAM Solar operates, or rather, used to operate a number of solar power plants in Italy. As a victim of contractual fraud from the seller of a portfolio of power plants in Italy, EAM has seen its share price tumble from 100 NOK to 35 NOK. The seller of the plants was Aveleos, a company owned jointly by Avelar Energy (a Switzerland-based energy company controlled by russian billionaire Viktor Vekselberg's company Renova as well as Enovos, a large energy company based in Luxembourg. A short time after the sale of the portfolio was completed, it was revealed that the Italian government had conducted an in-depth investigation of the sellers for fraud and arrested and indicted two of the directors of Aveleos. The sellers had misrepresented certain facts about the timing of completion of the plants. By doing this they were entitling the plants to government tariff contracts (Feed-in Tariffs) that they were not in fact eligible for, obviously a crime.

EAM had actually carried out an extremely thorough due diligence lasting over six months. They even went so far as using private investigators to do background checks on key persons in the process to check for any mob ties etc (this being assets located in southern Italy). They still got screwed. As things played out, they paid a 115m EUR for what is now mostly worthless garbage. In the transaction, EAM took over the existing debt on the plants of 73.4m EUR and the rest of the amount, about 41m EUR was freshly raised equity. Because without the Feed in Tariffs on the plants, there was little money to be made. The tariffs made this whole thing economically viable. And were obviously the reason why EAM bought the plants.

I believe EAM will be able to collect damages from these sellers. They are suing for 212m EUR, which is something like 380 NOK per share (EURNOK = 9.1). That seems high, even taking into account that this amount should also cover the debt on all the plants in question (originally 73.4m EUR but now higher since EAM is not servicing this debt currently). I think it is more reasonable to assume that they should at least be compensated for the cash flows they will now never receive from the Italian state plus some damages. Putting that figure at 120 NOK per share is probably conservative. That's more than 3.4x today's share price.

Hentet fra : https://www.valueinvestorsclub.com/idea/EAM_Solar/139025


EDIT: Etter denne analysen ble skrevet,er søksmålet hevet til 250mill eur +. Det er ekstremt stor avstand mellom dagens aksjekurs og mulig gevinstutfall ved suksess for EAM i rettsprosessen.